After former US senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) died overnight on Saturday and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) remains in the hospital in an unknown condition, what does this mean for the Republican Party as midterms approach?
Republicans currently have a majority of 53 seats to Democrats’ 47 seats in the Senate.
But now with Graham dead, McConnell still in the hospital, and midterms approaching, it looks like that could change.
If both seats are filled by Democrats, that would put the Senate at an even more narrow split of 51-49, making legislation even harder to pass in a mostly deadlocked Congress.
This comes as the GOP gears up for midterms and tries to pass a series of bills to prove to voters that the party still cares about affordability.
What will the GOP do for midterm elections?
This could prove difficult, as the party and Trump struggle with low approval ratings.
As of Sunday, Trump’s approval rating among Americans is approximately 39%, with 58% disapproving of his performance as president, according to polling from the New York Times.
His last average approval rating of 50% was in February 2025, according to the NYT.
In terms of general midterm races, the NYT poll shows Democrats currently have a modest lead overall, which isn't completely surprising, as the party out of power tends to generally gain some seats back in the midterm elections.
These numbers suggest that the president and the GOP are out of touch with his base on matters such as affordability and foreign policy.
Republicans are rapidly trying to push legislation such as the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE America) Act, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), and several government funding bills before their August recess. Congress also needs to pass 10 more appropriations bills before government funding expires in September.
During the recess, several of them will begin campaigning for the midterms to try to convince voters that the GOP is taking issues like immigration, national security, and affordability seriously.
“It makes no sense to paralyze the House to pressure the Senate to pass the SAVE Act,” House Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), told The Hill.
“We need to pass both, and now both [are] delayed. It’s just a dumb strategy that weakens the House GOP, and no one is more thrilled than [House Minority Leader Hakeem] Jeffries,” he said.
While Trump has given mixed comments on midterms, at one point going so far as to say that he didn’t care about them, other Republicans have emphasized the importance of midterm elections for the party.
Vice President JD Vance, who is believed to be a frontrunner for the Republican candidate for the 2028 presidential election, said that he believed Trump would get impeached should the GOP lose more seats in Congress.
“I’m sure he’ll get impeached. Look, they have nothing to actually run on or govern on. Their entire obsessive focus is that they hate Donald Trump,” Vance said in June.
"If we were to lose the midterms, heaven forbid, these Democrats, y'all impeachment's not even the big concern," Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) said in June at the Faith and Freedom Coalition.
"They will turn every committee of Congress into an investigative body, and they'll go after the president's family, the cabinet, his donors and friends; half of you in this room will be targeted. I run the protection program. I'll take care of you. We're going to win the midterms.”
Notably, a Democratic-controlled House could impeach Trump by a simple majority, but removal would still require a two-thirds vote in the Senate. It is more likely that an influx of Democrats into Congress would lead to more investigations into Trump's conduct as president and to overall paralysis in both chambers.
What happens to McConnell's, Graham's seats in Congress?
McConnell has been hospitalized since last month, after paramedics were called to his DC-area home for someone suffering a cardiac arrest. While it has not been confirmed that the person was McConnell, eyewitnesses told CNN that they saw the senator on a stretcher.
The senior senator and Trump ally has not been seen in public since the incident.
His team told the press that he was “receiving excellent care,” but has not provided any other updates on his health for about three weeks.
The two senior senators' untimely health issues could mean the Republicans lose their slight majority in the Senate.
If McConnell resigns before the end of his term, Kentucky will go to special elections to find his replacement. The elected official will serve in McConnell’s stead until January 2027.
Under Kentucky law, a proclamation for a special election must be filed with county sheriffs 63 days before any election, and candidates must file 56 days before.
Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, a Democrat, called for McConnell to release a statement on his health last week.
“As a governor and fellow public official who understands the commitment we’ve made to the people we serve, I am requesting the senator provide an update on his current health status.”
On Sunday, he doubled down, telling McConnell to "end the crazy speculation. Just tell us what’s going on."
Graham passed away from a “brief and sudden illness” on Saturday night. NBC News reported that DC-area medical emergency services responded to a call for cardiac arrest at his Capitol Hill home on Saturday.
South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster, a Republican, will appoint a replacement to fill Graham’s Senate seat until January 2027. Under state law, he is not required to pick a nominee of the same political party.
The South Carolina Republican Party will hold a special primary on August 11 to select a candidate, who will then face off in November against Dr. Annie Andrews.