Republicans are growing increasingly worried that they will lose key congressional seats, CNN and Reuters reported on Saturday.
Campaign officials, senators, and party operatives who spoke to CNN said the GOP will soon have to make hard decisions about whether to keep investing in races in North Carolina and Georgia.
Candidates in both states are behind in the polls and face growing questions about their campaigns. Rep. Mike Collins, who is trying to oust Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, is at around 42% support, while Ossoff has around 52%, according to recent YouGov polls.
In North Carolina, Michael Whatley is running against former gov. Roy Cooper. Cooper is up 48% in the polls, while Whatley is down 32%.
“I don’t know what the path is for Michael. I mean, I’ll just say that. Unless Cooper just completely stumbles,” one North Carolina GOP strategist told CNN on the condition of anonymity.
“These polls look really rough,” the strategist added. “The good thing is, Republicans always outperform polls. But never to this degree.”
GOP PACs cut spending in contested races
Notably, super PAC Old North Action cut its ad reservations in North Carolina by a third last week, CNN reported.
Notably, the Democrats need to win in North Carolina, as well as three other states, in order to flip the Senate.
For the House, Democrats would need to gain at least four seats to control the lower chamber.
Republicans are pouring money into red House seats, too.
Representative Bryan Steil is one telling example. His Wisconsin district voted for Trump by about 4.5 percentage points in 2024 and is rated "lean Republican" by Cook Political Report. Still, conservative super PACs dumped $1.5 million on his race this month, their first investment of this election cycle. A representative for Steil declined to comment.
In North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District east of Raleigh, Representative Gregory Murphy this month received $131,107 from a conservative PAC a week ago – the first outside spending on his behalf in the midterms. Democrats have spent over $326,000 trying to oust him since July. Trump won the district by 14 percentage points, and Cook rates it "solid Republican." Murphy's office didn't return a request for comment.
For some GOP leaders, the polls suggest that the party needs to make hard decisions about spending.
“You spend the money where we get Republicans elected,” North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis told CNN. “I want them to do that now. I mean you don’t spend the money just because you want to help somebody.”
In Georgia, Collins’s campaign recently released a statement that argued that one in 10 voters are still “up for grabs.”
Collins’s campaign claimed that voters who supported Trump in 2024 will back Republican Rick Jackson for governor, CNN reported.
“They should be voting for Mike Collins, and they are not yet, mainly because they do not have a firm opinion of him,” the statement said, adding that ramped-up spending could change that.
Republicans to spend $888 million in ads before November midterms
This comes as Republicans are spending huge amounts of money this election season to maintain their congressional majority.
Republicans have reserved at least $888 million in advertising over the coming weeks, compared to at least $666 million for Democrats, according to AdImpact, which tracks political advertising.
The shift is already showing up in advertising reservations and campaign finance filings. Since September 1, major Republican groups and megadonors have begun spending in at least 39 congressional races where they haven’t previously deployed money this cycle, a Reuters review of spending by some of the largest Republican political groups shows.
“We are erecting a big wall around all of our candidates,” Sen. Majority Leader John Thune said, as CNN reported. “There are headwinds we are facing in all the races around the country.”
Independent committees have spent more than $1.56 billion on federal elections so far, with roughly $496 million deployed since Labor Day, according to a Reuters analysis of super PAC spending. That figure doesn't include all spending by dark money nonprofits that do not disclose their donors.
Over the last three weeks through Friday, Republican-leaning super PACs have outspent Democrats by almost 2-to-1, showering races with roughly $309.7 million since Labor Day compared with $174.2 million going to help Democratic candidates, the FEC data shows.
Party leaders told Reuters that this was in an effort to get voters to the polls.
“Republicans are deploying our massive war chest to drive voters to the polls and supercharge our candidates," said Natalie Baldassarre, national press secretary for the Republican National Committee. "We’re not taking anything for granted, because, unlike Democrats, Republicans aren’t throwing in the towel on races we can win.”
However, despite the spending, some GOP officials are skeptical of what money will save races like those in North Carolina and Georgia.
“Here we are, what, 40 days out? And so I don’t think there is a lot that can be done,” Texas Sen. John Cornyn said, as quoted by CNN. “I think it is going to be a matter of where the resources should be deployed.”
He added that he was unsure whether there was anything Whatley could do to improve his chances of winning.
“I think if Thom Tillis was on the ticket, things would look a lot different, but the president basically went after him, and now we’ve got somebody who is not as well-known, and he’s struggling,” Cornyn added.
Still, Whatley said that he was “very comfortable we are going to have the resources that we need over the next 42 days to prosecute this campaign and win.”
Democrats say the level of spending indicates Republicans know they have much to lose in the upcoming midterms.
"Republicans are running scared, know they’ve lost the American people, and are trying one last Hail Mary to spend their way out of certain defeat,” said Viet Shelton, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
In North Carolina, Cooper’s team alleges their competition will do whatever it takes to win, even as party leaders express doubts about Whatley.
“A Democrat has not won statewide federal office here in nearly two decades,” Cooper’s campaign manager Jeff Allen told CNN.
“Whatley’s elite DC connections mean Republicans are going to spend whatever it takes to keep this seat.”