Without a doubt, David Barnea’s term running the Mossad from June 2021 to June 2026 will be judged by Israelis as an overall significant success.
During his term, the history-changing exploding beeper operation smashed much of Hezbollah to bits; the Mossad was a key partner with the IDF in taking out most of Iran’s nuclear weapons program; and Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah were assassinated, as were many of Iran’s top military and intelligence chiefs. He was one of the key figures in the return of most of the Israeli hostages from Hamas, as well as for the agency’s role in thwarting hundreds of terror plots against Jews overseas.
But exactly how successful he will ultimately be judged depends on whether Iran’s regime falls in the coming years, or whether it remains in power for years.
In his first speech since stepping down from the agency on June 1, Barnea said that Iran’s regime will fall through a mix of operations, economic pressure, and protests by its own people.
During the speech, Barnea supported the Trump administration’s latest economic pressure moves against the Islamic Republic.
He said that it was clear these were needed, but that they would be insufficient alone.
Moreover, he added that toppling the regime in Tehran would also require the use of force, although he did not specify whether that force would require another round of massive airstrikes or whether a covert sabotage campaign, Mossad-style, would be sufficient.
“The decision to place the most severe sanctions on Iran was correct and praiseworthy. But the sanctions are just another stage. There will be no choice other than to escalate the economic actions, the policies, and the operations against the regime until it falls, and it will fall,” Barnea stated.
According to Barnea, US President Donald Trump and much of the world – regardless of their complaints about gas prices – now understand more than ever the multi-headed threat that Tehran presents to them all: whether through nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, or proxy terror.
“Until Operation Roaring Lion, we felt that Iran was a problem for the State of Israel. Today, the whole world knows clearly that the Iranian saga is not solely our problem,” he said.
Barnea never promised Iranian regime would fall immediately after war launched, 'Post' understands
How does all of this fit in with Barnea’s view a few months ago of regime change, when he was still in office?
The Jerusalem Post understands that when Barnea spoke to Trump by video on February 12, he never promised that the Iranian regime would fall immediately. Rather, he estimated that the regime toppling could easily take a year or more from when the war would conclude, but that the war would highly enhance the conditions for regime change, such as the Kurdish ground operation.
Although it was not covered as much as other topics, in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech at Barnea’s exit ceremony, the prime minister voiced similar claims.
While Netanyahu’s public statements about regime change in Iran as the war took off had a more immediate feel, Barnea’s main push was that the regime would be shaken to its foundations. He argued that even if no deal is made, both the US counter-blockade on Iran at the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the sanctions, would remain.
In fact, the IDF started to bomb the Iranian regime and Basij forces in the Kurdish areas to prepare for a ground invasion, as the IDF publicized. However, although the IDF later said that 100% of “critical” and “essential” targets had been struck, the Post has learned that possibly only around 10% of the targets were hit in the plan to strike Iranian regime forces, in order to help the Kurds.
These targets were not included in the broader operation numbers, because they were considered part of a separate stage of the war that never fully kicked in, in which around eight million Kurds and many other minorities, like the Sunnis and the Baluchis, could have been brought into the regime-toppling effort like an avalanche.
When Barnea exited office in June, all signs pointed to a deal between Iran and the US, which Jerusalem would define as a “bad deal.” Barnea’s dissenting view at the time was that the US president would keep the financial, maritime, diplomatic, and military pressure on Iran.
Although with Trump, everything can change in an instant, as of early September, the supposed deal fell apart. Although Trump has removed the full-scale military threat, the economic and diplomatic maximum pressure campaign is in full swing and is still accompanied by some military strikes, from time to time.
In June, Barnea believed that if Trump kept pressure up on the regime, it could be toppled within a year.
At the same time, the Post understands that if Trump starts removing either the sanctions or his counter-blockade against Iran in Hormuz before a final deal is reached on all of the key issues, in Barnea’s view the plans of Israel, the CIA, and the Mossad will become less relevant.
In that case, the Islamic regime will be flooded with new funds and will grow stronger again. This will also flow down to the greater civilian population within one to two years, which could reduce the Iranian populace’s internal pressure to overthrow the regime.
In such a scenario, while the Islamic regime could still be toppled, the Post understands that Barnea would view such an undertaking as much more complex, requiring a new and completely different set of plans. Meanwhile, sources indicate that current Mossad director Roman Gofman is taking regime-change plans in new directions.
Barnea becomes head of leading autonomous systems company
What does the future hold for Barnea?
On August 3, it was announced that Barnea is joining Ondas’s senior executive leadership team as its new global president and chairman, supporting the company’s global expansion, strategic technology development, government and defense relationships, and its business and technological integration. Ondas provides autonomous systems and next-generation defense and security technologies.
In the meantime, only time will ultimately tell what Barnea’s Mossad legacy and Iranian regime-change efforts will be.
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