Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appointed Minister Ze’ev Elkin to lead the Likud’s immigrant outreach campaign ahead of the elections, as the party seeks to regain support among Russian-speaking voters.
The appointment reflects the Likud’s decision to once again focus on the Russian-speaking electorate, while also raising questions about Elkin’s own future on the party’s Knesset list.
Elkin, the only Russian-speaking candidate on the Likud list, is currently ranked 32nd, a position that is not considered realistic at this stage. Netanyahu’s decision to place him in charge of the campaign headquarters and include him in the party’s campaign management team highlights the importance the Likud places on Elkin’s experience and standing among Russian-speaking voters.
The move could strengthen the possibility that Elkin will receive a reserved slot, allowing him to move into a realistic position when the party submits its final list in about two weeks.
“Ahead of the upcoming election campaign, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to appoint Minister Ze’ev Elkin as the director of the Likud’s immigrant headquarters," the Likud Party said in a statement released Tuesday. "Minister Elkin will be a partner in the party’s campaign management team and will oversee all activity in the immigrant sector until the elections. Good luck, Ze’ev!”
Although the headquarters is officially called the “immigrant headquarters,” the main political effort will focus on Russian-speaking voters. According to updated assessments used by the Likud, this community currently represents an electoral force of around 15 Knesset seats.
Of those, around two seats are estimated to come from immigrants voting in Israel for the first time. The group includes people who immigrated in recent years, along with some who received Israeli citizenship from 2014 onward as part of what is known as “passport immigration.”
'Passport' immigrants arrived without permanent residency amid Russia-Ukraine war
These individuals did not permanently reside in Israel at the time, but arrived or settled in the country following the war in Ukraine and worsening conditions in Russia.
Another group of interest to the Likud is Russian-speaking voters who left Yesh Atid. According to assessments within the party, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid previously held the equivalent of around three Knesset seats among Russian-speaking voters, while today, according to Likud officials, he has slightly more than half a seat remaining.
The Likud views these voters as part of a support pool that has not yet consolidated behind a single party in this election.
The goal the Likud is setting this time differs from Netanyahu’s previous efforts. The party estimates that even during relatively weak election cycles, it receives around two Knesset seats from Russian-speaking voters, while in stronger years it has reached four or even five seats.
In 2009, when Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu won 15 seats, the Likud estimates that around five of those seats came from Russian-speaking voters. In 2013, the Likud and Yisrael Beytenu ran on a joint list, and in 2015, the Likud again operated a significant Russian-language campaign, reaching, according to party estimates, around four to five seats among this community.
During the 2019 repeat election campaign, Netanyahu pursued a much more aggressive strategy. The Likud recruited figures previously associated with Yisrael Beytenu, including Robert Ilatov and Sofa Landver, in an effort to weaken Lieberman’s influence among Russian-speaking voters.
Netanyahu set an especially ambitious goal at the time, seeking to weaken Yisrael Beytenu to the point that it would fall below the electoral threshold. The effort failed. Lieberman maintained his support base, and the Likud concluded that around five seats among Russian-speaking voters represented a relatively stable base of support for Yisrael Beytenu that would be very difficult to shift.
The lessons of 2019 are reflected in the Likud’s current strategy. Rather than trying to dismantle Lieberman’s support base, the party will focus on preserving the votes it already holds and competing for undecided voters, particularly new immigrants and former Yesh Atid supporters.
In a close election, the Likud estimates that every additional seat beyond its base of around two seats could be highly significant in the battle between the political blocs.
Likud's entry into Russian-targeted campaigning follows that of its political opponents
The Likud is entering this contest after its rivals. Four political forces are currently operating campaigns targeting Russian-speaking voters: Yisrael Beytenu, the Likud, Gadi Eisenkot, and the Bennett-Lapid camp.
According to Likud sources, the immigrant headquarters of Naftali Bennett’s Together Party has been active for about a year. Eisenkot began building his own operation around a month and a half ago, including through Alex Rif. The Likud is the last of these political forces to establish a dedicated headquarters.
The Likud’s effort begins with preserving the support it already has among Russian-speaking voters. The party acknowledges that this task has grown more complicated because of its partnership with the Haredi parties and the dispute over the military draft law.
Some voters the Likud is seeking to reach are right-wing supporters who nevertheless hold strong positions against the Haredi parties and against exemptions from military service.
As a result, the Russian-language campaign is expected to emphasize a tougher stance on military service, while Netanyahu seeks to maintain his partnership with the Haredi parties.
Netanyahu has already signaled the direction of the campaign. In an interview over the weekend with Channel 9, when asked about the lack of Russian-speaking representation in realistic positions on the Likud list, he claimed that “Elkin is in a realistic position and will be in the next Knesset.”
He later even described himself, half-jokingly, as a “Russian in the Likud,” and listed achievements of his governments that he said should appeal to Russian-speaking voters.
Elkin’s appointment also highlights a contradiction the Likud will need to resolve before submitting its list. Elkin is currently the party’s only Russian-speaking candidate, yet he is ranked 32nd.
The Likud is therefore campaigning for support among a community that, according to party estimates, represents around 15 Knesset seats, while the only representative from that community on its list is not currently in a secure position.
Elkin’s status also carries significance for coalition management if the Likud forms the next government. On the current list, it is difficult to identify a candidate with more proven experience than Elkin for the role of coalition chairman.
Elkin previously held the position and is considered someone who understands Knesset operations, coalition management, and negotiations between political factions.
The list will be submitted before the Likud knows what its immigrant headquarters achieved in the election, meaning the significance of the appointment lies in the decision Netanyahu made now.
He placed Elkin in charge of the Russian-speaking electoral effort and added him to the campaign management team just two weeks before the lists are finalized.
After Netanyahu has already said Elkin will be in the next Knesset, the appointment adds weight to the possibility that a decision guaranteeing that outcome will soon follow, moving him into a realistic position on the Likud list.