Israel's two main haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), were projected to win six to eight and six to seven seats, respectively, according to exit polls published by Channels 11, 12, and 13 on Tuesday night.
The projections would give the two parties a combined 12 to 15 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
The results could have significant implications for coalition negotiations and the next government's ability to secure a parliamentary majority. However, exit polls are preliminary projections, and the final distribution of seats will depend on the official vote count and the allocation of Knesset seats.
Both Shas and UTJ are part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political bloc, and their combined seat total could prove crucial in determining whether he can secure the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority.
Neither party has committed to joining only a Netanyahu-led coalition, and Shas’s spiritual leader has indicated that he would be open to joining a government led by prime ministerial candidate Gadi Eisenkot. This challenges the assumption that a vote for Shas necessarily translates into support for a Netanyahu-led government.
Shas, UTJ back Torah study law amid criticism over haredi draft exemptions
Both haredi parties pushed for legislation, recently passed by the Knesset, enshrining Torah study as a fundamental value in Israel’s Basic Laws. Critics argued that the legislation would encourage draft evasion, while the haredi parties defended it as a measure to protect the religious importance of full-time Torah study.
Regarding Gaza, Shas has broadly supported efforts to dismantle Hamas and demilitarize the Strip while opposing indefinite Israeli control of the territory.
Shas and UTJ have maintained close political cooperation, signing a surplus vote-sharing agreement earlier this month ahead of the October 27 election and pledging to continue working together in the next Knesset.
Another central issue for both parties is the relationship between religion and state. Shas and UTJ seek to preserve Israel’s Orthodox Jewish character and maintain the authority of religious institutions, particularly the Chief Rabbinate.
Both parties have strongly opposed expanding alternatives to religious marriage, including civil marriage, and support maintaining the existing system in which Jewish marriages are conducted through the Rabbinate.
Shas, UTJ reaffirm cooperation with vote-sharing agreement ahead of election
Announcing their surplus vote-sharing agreement, Shas chairman Arye Deri and UTJ lawmaker Yaakov Asher said it reflected the “continued cooperation between the factions, in accordance with the instructions of the generation’s leading rabbis and Torah sages.”
Despite their longstanding partnership in Netanyahu’s coalition, Shas and UTJ have faced growing criticism over their opposition to haredi military conscription amid the IDF’s severe manpower shortage.
Both parties pressed Netanyahu’s coalition to advance conscription legislation that critics argued would fail to significantly increase haredi enlistment during the government’s term.
They also boycotted coalition votes, declaring that they would not resume cooperation until progress was made on the contentious legislation they had been demanding.
Shir Perets contributed to this report.