Only about 20 of Likud's roughly 40 current ministers and MKs are expected to remain in the next Knesset under a scenario in which the party wins 30 seats, according to a new Agam Institute poll conducted ahead of the Likud primaries and released on Wednesday.
The poll points to a potential shake-up in the composition of Likud's next Knesset slate. The researchers stressed that the scenario in which Likud wins 30 seats is significantly higher than the polling projections cited in their report.
The findings also reveal substantial differences between the preferences of registered Likud members and those of the party's broader electorate.
According to the poll's simulation, veteran ministers and MKs, including David Amsalem, Miki Zohar, and David Bitan, are pushed down the list, while other candidates gain ground. The researchers described the trend as a dramatic change in Likud's slate, with veterans losing ground to new faces.
However, they stressed that the data from registered party members reflect the preferences of "free" voters and do not take organized voting blocs into account, a particularly significant factor in Likud primaries.
One of the researchers' main conclusions concerns the latest reserved slots on the party list. According to the report, the reserved slots "saved" Haim Katz and Gideon Sa'ar and kept Israel Katz in the top 10.
Sa'ar was not ranked as a primary candidate in the poll. The researchers reached the conclusion as part of their simulation of the slate after the reserved slots were incorporated. Haim Katz, by contrast, ranked only 35th in the raw ranking among registered party members.
Party members back Ohana, voters prefer Barkat
On the question of Likud's leadership after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel Katz ranked sixth among registered party members, with 10.3%, compared with fourth place and 11.3% among Likud voters. The researchers attributed his weaker showing among party members to frustration over the security campaign. Following the reserved slot, Katz was placed fifth in the simulated party slate.
Sharp differences between registered party members and Likud voters were also evident at the top of the rankings. Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana led among party members with 73%, followed by Tally Gotliv with 70% and Boaz Bismuth with 69.2%.
Ohana also led among loyal Likud voters, but Nir Barkat ranked first among wavering voters and those who have left the party. Gotliv and Shlomo Karhi performed better among the registered party base, while Barkat, Yariv Levin, and Miki Zohar enjoyed greater support among the broader Likud electorate.
The divide continued in the contest over who should succeed Netanyahu. Ohana was the preferred successor among registered party members, with 22.9%, while Barkat led among Likud voters with 19%. Among party members, Gotliv ranked second with 15.6%, while Barkat was only fourth with 10.8%.
Party members want a fully right-wing government, voters more open to unity
The differences were even clearer when respondents were asked about the composition of the next government. Some 66.1% of registered party members said they would prefer the next coalition to be a "fully right-wing government," compared with 45.1% of Likud voters.
Conversely, 54.9% of Likud voters preferred a unity government with the center-right, compared with only 33.9% of registered party members.
The researchers said these findings, together with the differences in preferences for individual politicians, help explain the strategic importance of reserved slots as a tool for broadening Likud's electoral appeal beyond its registered membership base.
On the issue of military conscription, however, the picture was different. Clear majorities in both groups supported increasing the proportion of people enlisting in the IDF, even at the expense of Torah study and at the risk of a coalition crisis. The proposal was supported by 66.8% of registered Likud members and 80.4% of Likud voters.
The poll was conducted by Dr. Nimrod Nir of the Agam Institute between August 6 and 10 among 1,062 Likud members eligible to vote in the party primary, alongside more than 1,000 Likud voters.