On paper, the end of May 2026 felt like the dawn of a new era in the Middle East. The raw data tells the story of a crushing Western victory: the US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is hemorrhaging the Tehran regime approximately $435 million a day. Sixty percent of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) ballistic missile arsenal has been liquidated in joint US-Israeli kinetic strikes. The nuclear program – the crown jewel of the ayatollahs’ regional ambitions – is physically paralyzed following the destruction of uranium conversion facilities in Isfahan and devastating blows to Fordow and Natanz.

Iran, it would seem, is on its knees.

But make no mistake: this progress is entirely reversible. While the halls of power in Washington buzz with talk of a Memorandum of Understanding and a 60-day ceasefire, the Iranian regime is doing what it does best: fighting for its survival. Its primary weapon at this moment is not missiles, but a sophisticated and uninhibited campaign of psychological warfare.

In Persian, we call this Gool Zadan – a calculated deception designed to lure the adversary into a false sense of security while buying precious time.

Tehran understands that the Western world is desperate for “quiet,” and it is prepared to sell any illusion necessary to lift the suffocating grip of sanctions.

Latest narrative

I was raised on a different set of stories about Iran. As the daughter of immigrants who fled after the revolution, I heard of “Great Iran” – a magnificent civilization that once led the world in science, art, and poetry.

My parents remember a nation that was a strategic Western ally, a country of immense potential that was taken hostage by an extremist cult.

When I look at Iran today, I don’t just see a security threat or a target for an airstrike; I see a grand civilization with a noose tightened around its neck.

The regime’s latest narrative emerged just a couple of days ago. Vice President Mohammad Aref announced a “first step toward a free and regulated Internet,” ostensibly a gift to citizens who “stood by the system.”

This is Tehran’s quintessential “sugar coating.” The regime posing as a liberator is the same one that entombed 85 million people in digital darkness for 88 consecutive days – the longest nationwide shutdown in modern history.

To grasp the magnitude of this crime, we must speak in numbers the Western mind can process. Eighty-eight days are 126,720 minutes. For us, a minute without a connection is an inconvenience; for a young Iranian, those were 126,720 minutes of total isolation from the world, of lost livelihoods, and of a silent terror where no one could hear your cry.

This “regulated” reconnection is not a herald of freedom; it is a digital honey trap designed to hunt down dissidents who dare type “Marg bar Diktator” (Death to the Dictator).

Continuing massacre

While the world allows Iran to chair UN human rights forums, a massacre unfolds in its prisons. After 1,600 executions in 2025, the pace turned monstrous in March 2026, with dozens hanged weekly.

The regime is hanging its future: wrestling champion Saleh Mohammadi, protester Mehrab Abdollahzadeh, and Yaghoub Karimpour – killed on fabricated charges. This is the direct continuation of the January 2026 massacre, in which tens of thousands were murdered in the streets to stifle the uprising.

Four women pull a man, chained around the neck and dressed as a mullah, during a demonstration against ‘the regime of the ayatollahs in Iran,’ in Brussels, in January.
Four women pull a man, chained around the neck and dressed as a mullah, during a demonstration against ‘the regime of the ayatollahs in Iran,’ in Brussels, in January. (credit: THIERRY MONASSE/GETTY IMAGES)

Yet an even more harrowing truth hides behind the walls of Urmia and Mashhad central prisons. While parts of the international community are busy hurling baseless accusations at Israel, the Iranian regime utilizes rape as a systematic and barbaric weapon of war against young women detained during the January 2026 protests.

According to heartbreaking testimonies smuggled out through encrypted satellite channels, women are subjected to brutal sexual assaults by guards and Basij operatives moments before being led to the gallows. This is a terror campaign aimed at one goal: breaking the spirit of the Iranian people through the maximum humiliation of their loved ones.

Tehran’s tentacles

Eight years ago, during the first lecture of my Master’s degree in Iranian Studies, I was asked: “What is the greatest threat to the Islamic Republic?” The answer I learned then resonates more than ever today: the loss of power.

Missiles can be manufactured again, bunkers can be dug deeper, and the economy can be laundered through Hong Kong shell companies and Hawala brokers in Dubai. But once the regime falls, there is no point of return. The regime understands this and is therefore willing to sacrifice everything, including the blood of its citizens, to maintain its power.

The Iranian problem has never been Israel’s alone. Tehran’s tentacles reach deep into Europe and South America, investing billions in exporting murderous ideologies and destabilizing global security.

The notion that this regime can be “deterred” through agreements is the same failed “conception” that collapsed on October 7, 2023, with Hamas. An ideological terror organization is never deterred by diplomatic settlements; it merely uses them to buy time, rearm, and wait for the opportune moment.

Hamas was not deterred, and the Iranian regime – its spiritual and financial father – is not deterred. It will only be deterred when it ceases to exist. Every dollar released from frozen accounts in China or Qatar, and every easing of the naval blockade before the total dismantlement of terror and nuclear infrastructure, is merely fuel for the next execution machine.

Waiting for the world

Do not let them fool you. The real Iranian people, those who smuggle heartbreaking voice notes out of prison despite the blackout, are waiting for the world to stop believing Tehran’s lies.

The international community must decide: Will it provide the regime with a diplomatic lifeline in the form of a weak deal that allows it to rebuild its capabilities, or will it realize that this lifeline is, in fact, the noose closing around the necks of Iran’s youth?

Victory will not be achieved in Washington’s meeting rooms, but on the day the Iranian people are finally liberated from the regime. Until then, we must not relent. ■


Yasmin Sayeh is a strategic analyst and a frequent commentator on Iranian geopolitical affairs in Israeli national media. A member of Forum Dvorah, she holds an MA in Security Studies from Tel Aviv University. As a daughter of Iranian immigrants and a native Persian speaker, she provides a unique perspective on the intersection of Iranian society and regional security. Professionally, she serves as a project adviser at the Federation of Local Authorities in Israel.