When Americans think about the Middle East, there is a tendency to view whatever is happening at the moment as the defining issue that should shape long-term US strategy. That is a mistake.
We need to begin any discussion of the future US-Israel relationship within a broader regional context. The trajectory of the next stage of the partnership between these two allies will depend heavily on how American administrations assess the future strategic environment in the Middle East. It will also depend on whether Arab and Muslim states choose a future centered on economic development and societal advancement rather than remaining trapped in the self-defeating pursuit of delegitimizing and destroying Israel.
If future American administrations acknowledge this reality, the opportunities for advancing shared US, Israeli, and allied security interests will be significantly enhanced.
If not, we could end up abandoning the region to the axis of Iran, China, and Russia, profoundly degrading our ability to advance American interests in a region that will remain vital to our security for generations, whether we like it or not.
An American withdrawal from the Middle East that leaves Islamists unconstrained in a region where they have repeatedly threatened and attacked US interests is a prescription for future 9/11s.
Emerging threats
As America celebrates its 250th anniversary, many may find it difficult to imagine that our future entanglements in the Middle East could depend not only on whether the Iranian regime survives, a deeply troubling prospect, but also on whether current and future US administrations recognize emerging threats from perceived allies and partners.
Countries such as Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan could pose significant challenges to American national security interests in the 2030s and 2040s. Whether through support for Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated movements seeking to undermine Western institutions or through the risk of regional nuclear proliferation, these states may become increasingly consequential.
Even more concerning is the possibility that one or more of these authoritarian regimes could collapse, creating opportunities for more radical Islamist and jihadist movements to seize power.
Looking into the future is necessary to avoid misunderstandings and align American strategic goals with Israel as we move from a relationship of perceived dependency to a genuine partnership between the world’s unipolar superpower and the Middle East’s regional power.
So, will the Trump administration and the Democratic and Republican administrations that follow share Israel’s strategic outlook for the region?
At the present time, Israel sees only the collapse and transformation of the Iranian regime as anything close to a solution for the region, whereas America does not share this goal.
Based on today’s decisions, which often prioritize domestic American political considerations over more consequential long-term shared security objectives, there is reason for concern.
We are at a pivotal moment, and American negotiating mistakes that Iran has skillfully exploited could severely damage the next stage of the US-Israel partnership.
The next test
Pessimists note that younger American voters, both Democrats and Republicans, increasingly view Israel negatively and the relationship between the countries will soon face an important test as Washington and Jerusalem begin negotiations on a new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).
The discussions are expected to address the gradual phase-out of direct American assistance for Israeli weapons procurement and the transition toward a partnership model that advances the interests of both countries.
For Israel, the central issue is preserving its Congressionally mandated Qualitative Military Edge (QME) while ensuring access to American defense systems that cannot be restricted by future administrations for political reasons. Embedding these principles within a new MOU would serve both Israeli and American interests.
Anything less would force Israel to further diversify its sources of military procurement if, during times of existential threat, it fears that a future administration could restrict arms transfers.
Such an outcome would not serve American strategic interests or American defense manufacturers. Israeli innovations and battlefield adaptations have consistently enhanced US weapons systems, increasing their effectiveness and attractiveness to allied buyers around the world.
Strategic crossroads
As America marks its special anniversary, both the United States and Israel find themselves at a crossroads, albeit for very different reasons.
For two generations, many American universities have taught students that the United States has done more harm than good in the world and has aligned itself with nations that have perpetuated colonialism and destruction abroad.
Among many young Americans, socialism and Marxism are increasingly fashionable, while capitalism is viewed with suspicion or hostility. These students, who will become America’s future leaders, too often view authoritarian states such as Qatar as acceptable partners while dismissing or minimizing the influence of Islamist movements that seek to undermine liberal democratic societies from within.
Their inability to distinguish legitimate concerns about Islamist extremism from accusations of anti-Muslim prejudice has weakened our ability to confront genuine domestic security threats.
How America addresses these challenges during the coming decades will help determine whether the US-Israel relationship continues to thrive.
Bi-partisan support
Israel, for its part, must avoid becoming identified with only one American political party. Israeli leaders must engage proactively with policymakers across the political spectrum, including those with whom they may disagree.
Israel should also invest more heavily in public diplomacy. Effective representatives in Washington, New York, and the UN should be selected not only for their expertise but also for their ability to connect with diverse American audiences.
Fluent English speakers who communicate calmly, clearly, and persuasively are often more effective than those who appear confrontational, regardless of the merits of their arguments.
Ideally, Israel should cultivate a new generation of younger and more diverse spokespersons capable of connecting with a broad cross-section of Americans.
As America enters its next quarter millennium, the future of the US-Israel relationship will depend not merely on military cooperation or shared threats. It will depend on whether both nations possess the strategic foresight to recognize the challenges ahead and the wisdom to strengthen a partnership that remains objectively indispensable to their mutual security and prosperity.■
Dr. Eric R. Mandel is the Director of MEPIN, the Middle East Political Information Network, and is a contributor to The Hill, JNS, The Jerusalem Post, i24, ILTV, and many other media outlets. He regularly briefs members of Congress, their foreign policy advisors, and the State Department.