The mysterious leader of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force has issued a new warning to the US and Israel. According to Iran’s IRNA state media, Brigadier-General Esmaeil Qaani “has warned the United States and Israel against further military escalation in Gaza and Lebanon, saying that new fronts could open and maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could mirror the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Qaani is almost a spectral figure. Appointed in 2020 after the US killed his predecessor, Qasem Soleimani, Qaani has largely remained in the background. Reportedly an expert on Afghanistan, he appeared to struggle when taking over from Soleimani. Soleimani was a key figure in building Iran’s proxy networks in the region. He had worked with late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon and helped bring the Russians in to back the Assad regime in Syria. He also forged connections to the Houthis in Yemen and helped mobilize militias in Iraq.
Qaani inherited the many-branched empire of Iranian proxies. However, he was seen as neither innovative nor inspirational. Whenever he appeared, it was only for short stints in places like Iraq. He often seemed to be either sidelined or in hiding. This led to some on social media poking fun at him, claiming that he was an agent of Israel. In recent times, he is seen as a survivor of the recent conflicts between Israel and Iran.
“The Zionists’ aggression in Lebanon and Gaza, carried out under the shameless backing of the United States, will further strengthen the resolve of the Axis of Resistance to expand its support for both fronts, move toward activating other fronts, and bring the traffic conditions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in line with those of the Strait of Hormuz,” he said, according to the report.
Bab el-Mandeb strait
Bab el-Mandeb is the strait linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. This is notable, because, apparently, it seems that Iran is ready to raise the pressure. Iran already controls the Strait of Hormuz; utilizing the Houthis to strike at the Red Sea would be a major escalation. If push comes to shove, Israel and the US may have to discuss their options regarding the Red Sea.
The US and Israel have both struck the Houthis in the past. However, the Houthis are a difficult opponent, as they hide in their mountains with drones and ballistic missiles.
Iran wants to connect the region to Lebanon, so that any Israeli operation in Lebanon is met with a response on another front. IRNA notes that Qaani “also warned the Israeli regime that its actions in southern Lebanon and Gaza would be met with military operations by Palestinian and Lebanese resistance movements.”