Iran appears to have ended its ballistic-missile attacks against Israel. The regime’s airstrikes came two days after it chose to target Israel in response to its operations in Lebanon.
Iran was signaling that in addition to using Lebanon as a bargaining chip in talks with the US, it also wants to set down new lines of deterrence against Israel.
Israeli officials have said Jerusalem will not permit this to happen, and that Iran won’t be allowed to change the “equation.”
The question now is whether Iran will continue to conduct these types of “tit-for-tat” responses and whether this becomes the new normal.
Iran already did this when it attacked Israel with large numbers of ballistic missiles and drones in April and October 2024, essentially breaking a kind of glass ceiling, or regional norm.
In each case, Iran claimed to be responding to Israeli actions. It said Israel had attacked a diplomatic building linked to Iran in Damascus, and that it was angry over the elimination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the summer of 2024.
Iran strives to carve out new norm
The real story was that Tehran wanted to carve out this new norm – attacking when it wants and setting new escalation rules in the region. This was supposed to shift the balance of power in Iran’s favor.
Tehran had done this before with missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility in 2019. It was now testing to see what kind of response it would get by striking Israel.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week said Iran would not be allowed to rewrite this equation.
“A year ago, we launched a historic preemptive strike against Iran’s intention to destroy us with atomic bombs,” he said. “We thwarted this immediate threat, and we also eliminated the tyrant [supreme leader Ali] Khamenei.”
“With that same determination, we acted against Hezbollah as well,” Netanyahu said. “Hezbollah planned to invade the Galilee with thousands of terrorists, and at the same time, it planned to devastate Israel’s cities with 150,000 missiles and rockets.”
“Iran and Hezbollah are weaker than ever, and we are stronger than ever,” he said. “But our battle against them is still not finished. In the last 24 hours, Iran and Hezbollah tried to impose a new equation upon us, and it is an equation I find intolerable and unacceptable.”
“They thought they would fire at Israel from Lebanese territory and from Iran, and we would not act,” Netanyahu said. “That did not happen, and it will not happen... After Iran attacked Israel, I instructed the IDF to attack military and economic targets throughout Iran. We did that, too.”
Nevertheless, Israel is now “holding fire,” he said, adding that “in the event that the terrorist regime in Iran makes the mistake of resuming attacks on us, we will respond with overwhelming force.”
Iran shows willingness to attack across region
The question is whether his statement will reverberate throughout Iran and the region and make Tehran realize it can no longer lob missiles at Israel.
In recent months, Iran has shown that it is willing to carry out attacks all over the region. This has created a 4,800-kilometer front line from Lebanon to Iraq and the Gulf, as well as to Yemen, where the Iranian-backed Houthis are. The Houthis joined the Iranian attacks this week and do not appear to be deterred.
Iran’s goal is to up the ante in the region, and it feels it can do whatever it wants whenever it wants. It already has been doing this for more than 45 years, but it now feels emboldened.
Even though Israeli officials claim Iran is weakened, sometimes even a weakened country, or one that feels cornered, may lash out. Tehran is clearly trying to prevent a sense in Washington or Jerusalem that the regime will fall.
It wants to show that any action will lead to a reaction. Iran’s objective is to establish deterrence and also to carve out “redlines” across the region, indicating where it will still defend its proxies, such as Hezbollah. Iran does not want them removed or dismantled.
The coming months and years will reveal whether this week’s tit-for-tat escalation was a one-time event or whether this becomes the new normal. Since 2024, it has appeared to be a kind of new normal.