Iran is refraining from striking Israel partially due to fears of Hezbollah's collapse in Lebanon if fighting resumes with Israel, according to retired military Lt.-Col. (res.) Or Horowitz, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) and former head of the military intelligence Hezbollah desk.
The US State Department announced earlier this week that activity had begun in three "pilot zones" in Lebanon, in the villages of Froun, Srifa, and Zawtar al-Gharbiya. According to the American announcement, the move is being carried out under the tripartite framework between the US, Israel, and Lebanon, and under the auspices of the military coordination group established to implement the understandings.
Horowitz argued that he is seeing a significant weakening of the Hezbollah terrorist organization.
"A historic change is taking shape in Lebanon. Hezbollah is in a weaker state than ever before, Horowitz said. "On the other side, there is a brave president; he wants to end the hostility once and for all. At the end of the day, he is a politician; he wants to avoid a civil war and being murdered himself, and despite that, he is making very brave moves."
He then analyzed the expansion of Lebanese Army activity in the area alongside Hezbollah's weakening.
"We are seeing the Lebanese Army, which in the past did nothing; its activity against Hezbollah was absolutely zero, and now that is changing," said Horowitz. "Alongside very deep American involvement, they are affecting both the motivation and the capabilities.
"Hezbollah, in my view, has been dramatically weakened," he continued. "It still exists; we have seen tragic fatalities, but I remind you that this is an organization that once dreamed of destroying the State of Israel, and now it is a pale shadow of those capabilities. The organization is an Iranian organization that operates according to Iranian interests, and in this case that is not an Israeli cliché. It really is subordinate."
Horowitz: Lebanese Army gradually strengthening as Hezbollah weakens
He further explained that, in his view, the Lebanese Army is gradually strengthening.
"I think the Lebanese Army has the motivation, and now it needs to be given the tools gradually, while Hezbollah is being weakened, to carry out these actions," he said. "This pilot is the first case in which the Lebanese Army will be tested. I think that, for the first time in years, there is an opportunity for deep change in Lebanon.
"In my opinion, if we act correctly and America remains involved, I think we will be able to see results," he added. "In a gradual process, in light of the organization's historic weakening, I think it is possible."
Iran fears Hezbollah's collapse, deterred by IDF
Later, he spoke about Iranian involvement in Lebanon and said Iran is deterred by Israel's strength and fears Hezbollah's collapse if fighting resumes.
"One of the reasons Iran is not firing at Israel is its desire not to restart the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, explained Horowitz. "Hezbollah is in a difficult military state everywhere there is friction with IDF troops. I think Iran and Hezbollah understand that as well.
"The question here is what happens from the moment Iran becomes involved, whether Hezbollah enters the campaign or perhaps does not," Horowitz continued. "That is basically its watershed line, because I think that if Hezbollah enters for the third time in the service of non-Lebanese interests, it is really putting itself in a hole it will find difficult to get out of."
"At the end of the day, the Lebanese Army understands that it is facing a strong militia," he stressed. "We need to gradually allow the Lebanese Army to expand its activity against Hezbollah, but it should be understood that its ability to enter a full confrontation with Hezbollah would mean a civil war in Lebanon. From what I can tell, there is at least no motivation or desire for that in Lebanon's leadership."