Hezbollah’s attacks on the IDF and Lebanese Armed Forces have not derailed talks between Beirut and Jerusalem, even amid Israel’s recent strikes on the group, two experts told The Jerusalem Post.
Beirut and Jerusalem held talks in Rome last week, with some sessions ending early in response to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon. The talks followed a US-brokered agreement reached in June under which Hezbollah would no longer pose a threat to Israel from southern Lebanon and Israeli forces would completely withdraw.
Hezbollah has repeatedly condemned the talks, threatening civil war and urging Lebanese officials to allow the Islamic Republic and its axis to pressure the United States to force Israel to end the war, which was launched by the terrorist organization in response to the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Only two days before the talks began, five members of the Lebanese military were wounded by a Lebanese explosive that Israel attributed to Hezbollah. On Wednesday, Maj. (res.) Harel Birenstock and M.-Sgt. (res.) Tamir Vaknin were killed in a similar explosive incident, and Israel responded to the ceasefire violation with renewed strikes.
The situation has undoubtedly created complicated ground for Beirut, Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman, a lecturer at Shalem College in the Department of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies and the Vice President of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told the Post on Thursday.
Difficult to negotiate while Lebanon under strikes
“I think we are facing a paradoxical situation here because, on the one hand, clearly when violence erupts, it’s more difficult for the Lebanese government to carry on a conversation, given that we have wreaked quite a lot of havoc in southern Lebanon, with very good reason. But it’s not easy for the Lebanese government to carry on negotiations under these circumstances,” he explained. “On the other hand, it’s very clear that unless we demonstrate in a very clear and unambiguous way that we are capable of reducing Hezbollah further, then they cannot ultimately stand in the way of a Lebanese government that wants a better future for the Lebanese.”
Caught between demonstrating to Hezbollah that Israel will “not tolerate its provocations,” and needing Beirut to have the support to engage with Jerusalem, Lerman said it was a delicate “balancing act” between diplomacy and military strength that would ultimately give Lebanon the chance to rid itself of Hezbollah.
Managing those in Israel who “see everything entirely through the prism of military power” and addressing “internal Lebanese rifts” are also part of the challenge in determining whether what could eventually become a peace treaty can materialize, he said. Those difficulties are being managed through the pilot zones, where the Lebanese can demonstrate whether they are capable of handling Hezbollah without Israel having to gamble away the progress it has made in the buffer zone without concrete evidence on Beirut’s will and capability to see its promises through.
Lebanon committed to moving forward despite Hezbollah 'background noise'
David Schenker, a Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and former US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, told the Post that Hezbollah’s actions amounted to “a lot of background noise,” but said he believed Beirut remained committed to moving forward regardless.
“Putting aside whether the Lebanese Armed Forces will actually fulfill their obligations, I think the government is committed to moving forward, but it complicates the situation for the Lebanese government, which is already being heavily criticized by its opponents,” he said.
While Lerman said the pace of the pilot withdrawals is beneficial for Israel, Schenker said Beirut was under pressure to show quick results, with critics viewing the situation as Lebanon making concessions in exchange for little immediate gain.
Despite the push to see an Israeli withdrawal happen as quickly as possible, Beirut still faces several domestic challenges before it can demonstrate its capabilities. The issue of private property, for example, has been widely discussed by Lebanese analysts, some of whom argue that the nature of Lebanon’s crisis means Shiite homes should be searched by the military without judicial warrants.
“The Lebanese Armed Forces are no doubt, I think, hesitant to be kicking down the doors of private Shiite homes in Lebanon,” Schenker said. “And yet, we all know that weapons caches are in these homes or underneath these homes, though not all of them.”
If Beirut cannot find a solution to the issue, he warned, the pilot zones would ultimately fail to keep the Hezbollah threat at bay. Such a failure would not only be a problem for Beirut, but also for Jerusalem.
“I think it would be really regrettable if, once again, Israel were unable to translate military battlefield successes into political and strategic gains,” he explained. “The prospect of having not only a renewed armistice but also the beginning of more normal relations with a country where the vast majority of people, unlike in the countries with which Israel currently has peace treaties, seem to say in polls that they want peace with Israel, would be a real loss, first and foremost for Israel.”
If Israel can achieve a lasting peace with its neighbor, it could also change the trajectory of what appears to be Iranian gains, Schenker suggested. He noted that Tehran had secured a number of significant concessions from the United States when it signed the Memorandum of Understanding and may now potentially be allowed some level of control over the Strait of Hormuz. Given that Tehran pushed for an end to Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon as part of the MOU, achieving such an outcome outside Iran’s control would weaken Tehran’s influence.
Schenker suggested that the majority of Lebanese Shiites have lost faith in Hezbollah after years of war and destruction, while other sects were already “sick and tired of it” and had not forgotten the dozens of Lebanese Christian and political officials and journalists murdered by the group over the past few decades.
What may deliver the final blow, though it would be difficult to achieve given Lebanon’s financial state, would be replacing the civil infrastructure Hezbollah provides. The Iranian-backed group has its own schools, medical clinics, summer camps and an entire economy dependent on it per their own design, he said.
“Real peace is going to be elusive unless the government actually starts establishing a presence. But there is a chicken-and-egg question,” he explained. “This is a government that is still in the midst of an economic crisis and will not likely emerge from this crisis until Hezbollah is disarmed.”