Lebanon’s economy is projected to shrink by 6.4% in 2026 after Hezbollah’s decision to return to war with Israel wiped out the early recovery achieved in 2025, according to the latest World Bank Lebanon Economic Monitor report.
The report, titled “A Conflict-Torn Economy,” estimated that Lebanon’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 4.2% in 2025, marking its strongest growth since the onset of the country’s financial crisis in 2019.
The 2025 recovery was driven by stronger private consumption, investment and tourism, alongside improvements in high-frequency economic indicators. However, the recovery was sharply interrupted by Hezbollah's decision to renew conflict in March 2026, which caused further damage to housing and infrastructure, displaced communities, disrupted supply chains, and weighed heavily on tourism and domestic demand.
Around 360,000 people remain displaced, including at least 22,000 people living in collective shelters, according to UN figures, and over 700,000 people are still affected by damage to water infrastructure in parts of southern Lebanon. At the height of the conflict, the UN reported that 1.2 million people were internally displaced.
The report estimates that the conflict will reduce GDP growth by 10.4 percentage points relative to a scenario without the conflict. The latest downturn comes after Lebanon’s economy already contracted by an estimated 5.2% in 2024.
World Bank Group Middle East director warns war set back Lebanese recovery
“Lebanon’s fragile recovery has been sharply set back by the renewed conflict, adding to an already severe social and economic crisis, advancing reforms - particularly on banking sector restructuring and fiscal management - will be critical to restoring confidence, protecting stability, and mobilizing the financing needed for reconstruction and recovery,” the World Bank Group Middle East Director Dahlia Khalifa said.
Before Hezbollah's attacks on Israel renewed the war, in response to the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Lebanon's economy was starting the long path to recovery. The second half of 2025 had seen construction permits and cement deliveries increase by 12.8% and 14%, respectively, compared with the first half of the year. Passenger arrivals, an indicator of tourism activity, had also increased by 24.5% over the same period.
Beirut recorded an overall surplus of 3.9% of GDP in 2025, supported by improved tax compliance and stronger customs and VAT collection. However, the fiscal position is now expected to come under pressure from rising costs related to conflict-related humanitarian and reconstruction needs, pressure to increase public sector wages, and slowing revenue growth.
Additionally, in 2025, Lebanon imported more than it exported, so its current account deficit grew, and disruptions to regional trade stemming from the Iran wars and other factors also saw oil prices reinforce the deficit.
Lebanese public debt unsustainable, inflation expected to rise, report warns
The report warned that, at its current level, the public debt is unsustainable, and inflation is also expected to rise to 17.5% by the end of 2026 as a result of war-related supply disruptions, higher shipping costs, and rising oil prices. With energy imports accounting for 23% of Lebanon’s total imports in 2025, Beirut’s continued dependence on imported fuel for electricity generation and transportation can only be expected to worsen the crisis, especially given the disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite renewed inflationary pressures, the Lebanese pound has remained broadly stable, supported by foreign exchange reserves and tighter local-currency liquidity. The World Bank warned, however, that the exchange rate could come under renewed pressure if foreign inflows decline or conflict-related shocks persist.
The World Bank said Lebanon’s banking sector remains deeply weakened despite progress on parts of the restructuring agenda, and stressed that banking-sector reform and stronger fiscal management will be essential to restoring confidence and mobilizing financing for reconstruction.