The Middle East has a long history of wars of attrition, and it now appears that the Trump administration is prepared for a new war of attrition against the Iranian regime.
The evidence for this is that we have now seen several rounds of fighting. The first round was in June 2025, when the US supported Israeli strikes on Iran. The second round began in February 2026 with US and Israeli strikes, and now there is a third round.
Why are wars of attrition so common in the Middle East?
While some people think back to the 1967 Six-Day War and the US-led Gulf War in 1991 as examples of decisive victories in which enemies were defeated quickly, the fact is that the Middle East has also seen its share of long, seemingly endless wars.
For instance, the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988 was a very long conflict in which huge numbers of people were killed. Iraq and Iran used missiles to attack each other’s cities, and Iraq also used chemical weapons. It was a brutal, vicious war in which infantry slogged through trenches in fighting that was more reminiscent of World War I than World War II.
That is one example of a war of attrition, but there are many more.
Another example is the fighting that took place after the 1967 Six Day War. While Israel had vanquished the Egyptian, Syrian, and Jordanian forces in 1967, the aftermath of that conflict saw continued fighting along the Suez Canal with Egypt. This became known as the War of Attrition.
The conflict is often forgotten today, but it was important at the time. Several years later, in 1973, Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel in what became known as the Yom Kippur War.
There have been many other long conflicts in the Middle East. Another example is what followed the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. The US quickly toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime, but an insurgency soon emerged.
That insurgency grew, eventually leading to the US troop surge in 2007, in which Washington sent additional forces and sought to break the back of the insurgency by working with Sunni Arab Awakening councils and other groups.
Israel has also faced repeated and prolonged conflicts. There were numerous rounds of fighting in Gaza in 2009, 2012, 2014, and 2021, followed by the war that began with the October 7, 2023, attacks.
There were also other conflicts that Israel fought, including the long conflict in Lebanon. The Lebanese Civil War began in 1975 and continued until 1990, following the 1989 Taif Agreement, which was reached with Saudi Arabia’s support. Israel intervened in Lebanon in 1978 and again in 1982. Israeli forces then maintained a presence in southern Lebanon until 2000.
Which side can sustain repeated rounds of conflict?
There are many other examples. Somalia’s breakdown as a state in the 1990s led to a long conflict that is still not resolved. Israel recognized Somaliland because it has become an independent state due to Somalia becoming a failed state.
In addition, in Libya and Yemen, there have been civil wars. North and South Yemen fought wars in the 1960s and 1970s. Later, the Houthi rebels tried to take over Aden after advancing from Sanaa.
A Saudi Arabia-led intervention in 2015 stopped the Houthis, but Yemen is still divided. In addition, Libya fractured into several parts after 2011.
Today there is some chance at reconciliation. In addition, Libya and Chad fought a long conflict in the 1980s. In addition, there was the Ogaden War between Somalia and Ethiopia, and the Ethiopia-Eritrea War.
The history of the Middle East and the wider region of North Africa, Afghanistan and the Sahel therefore shows that rapid military victories do not always occur; nor do they lead to decisive political outcomes. A military can win a battle or destroy an enemy’s capabilities, only to find itself confronting another round of fighting for months or years later.
This may be the challenge now facing the United States and Israel in confronting Iran. If the current conflict is becoming a war of attrition, then the key question is not simply who can carry out the most effective strikes.
The question is which side can sustain repeated rounds of conflict, absorb the costs, and ultimately translate military pressure into a lasting political and strategic outcome.