Iran believes it is in a position of strategic advantage because the United States is seeking to avoid a broader conflict, former senior Israeli security official Avner Vilan said in an interview with 103FM on Monday.
"The Iranians have a sense of victory," Vilan said. "They control the Strait of Hormuz, and nobody has done anything to them. Their strategy is working."
He added that Tehran believes US President Donald Trump is reluctant to become involved in another major war and is therefore willing to take greater risks.
"They understand that Trump does not want to get entangled in another large-scale war, so they are playing this game of chicken and are prepared to take risks," Vilan said. "From Iran's perspective, the challenge is not only absorbing the damage inflicted by the other side, but also surviving the residual damage. The Iranians are preparing themselves for a situation in which, even if they lose infrastructure and their economy is badly damaged, the regime itself survives. It will still be able to project power, perhaps not on the same scale, but it will continue to harass the entire region and strike significant civilian infrastructure."
Vilan argued that even if the military balance clearly favors one side, the strategic outcome will ultimately depend on which side faces greater pressure to reach an agreement.
"We could reach a situation where, militarily, there is no question about who won," he said. "But strategically, what matters is who is under greater pressure to reach a settlement. I'm not convinced that even after bombing Iran, the American pressure to reach an agreement would not be greater."
Iran sees US reluctance as strategic advantage
Meanwhile, a sharply worded editorial published by The Wall Street Journal criticized Trump's decision to once again halt military escalation in the Persian Gulf while referring to vague statements about an emerging agreement.
According to the article, Trump published a social media post on Saturday evening claiming that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to suspend further military action because understandings had been reached on the framework of an agreement.
Trump said the reported understandings included the "full and immediate" reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the complete termination of Iran's nuclear program. However, he did not provide additional details. The apparent policy shift came only days after reports in the United States indicated that he had already decided to intensify the US military response following Iranian attacks on vessels and missile fire at a US base in Jordan.
The article also cited reports from Saudi Arabia claiming that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Trump to back away from further escalation out of concern that the kingdom's oil facilities could become targets of attacks by Iran and the Iran-backed Houthis.
According to the Wall Street Journal editorial, if those reports are accurate, they suggest that Iran is currently setting the regional agenda and dictating the pace of escalation.