Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s visit to Iraq comes as Tehran seeks to “reshuffle relations with Iraq,” Dr. Yaron Schneider, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) specializing in Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday.
Ghalibaf traveled to Iraq on Wednesday for a three-day visit amid growing tensions over the September 30 deadline for militia disarmament and as Iraq grapples with a severe economic crisis stemming from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Upon his arrival, he insisted that the two countries needed to strengthen a “new regional order” and denounced “foreign interference.”
On Thursday, he met with the President of the Supreme Judicial Council of Iraq, Faiq Zidan, to discuss “mutual interests,” following talks on Wednesday with senior Iraqi officials on issues including “strengthening bilateral relations, border security, the fight against terrorism, expanding economic cooperation and implementing joint agreements,” according to Iran’s Tasnim news agency.
The issue of economic cooperation is one that Iran has used to interfere in Baghdad’s domestic policies, Schneider explained.
Iraq's oil-dependent economy faces crisis amid Hormuz closure
Iraq’s economy remains heavily reliant on oil, which accounts for 90% of government revenue, 95% of export earnings, and more than 53% of the country’s gross domestic product.
“Iraq is heavily reliant on oil exports as the basis of its economy. The government depends on that, and salaries are being delayed because of it. This is a crisis that is still ongoing and might undermine the state if it continues. They don’t have any short-term solution for this crisis,” he said, adding that Iraq’s monthly oil revenues fell from around $7–$8 billion down to $1.2–$1.9 billion.
The issue was raised by Iraq’s own parliament speaker, Haibat al-Halbousi, on Wednesday, who asked Ghalibaf for Iraqi oil exports to be given a special exemption to safely cross through the Strait of Hormuz, according to a statement from his office.
“The Iranians are trying to mend or fix what has already been out of order over the last month, so they don’t lose Iraq,” Schneider suggested, adding that he didn’t think that all of Iran’s assets in Iraq were endangered by the current tensions “because they still have the power and ability to project their power through these militias, intimidate the government and intimidate elements in Iraq that might want to get rid of their influence, such as the Kurds.”
Iran moves to contain Hormuz fallout, protect Iraqi militias
The visit, and any prospective economic agreement with Baghdad, would suggest “Iran is trying to do its best, first of all, to quiet the voices criticizing it for the devastating consequences of the Hormuz crisis and, secondly, to use all of its assets in Iraq to counter this new policy of dismantling and disarming the militias,” he said.
The Arab newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported, citing Iraqi sources, that Iran is currently pushing a deal with Baghdad that would allow the PMF to hold on to its weapons so long as they freeze the use of them, conceal heavy weapons, and/or potentially transfer them temporarily to Iran until a more permanent settlement is agreed upon.
After Iraqi militia attacks saw Saudi Arabia strike Iraq last month, and with pressure from Washington, Baghdad is understandably invested in disarming the militias, though it must balance ties with its neighbor. More complicated, Schneider continued, is the fact that many senior members of Iraq’s coalition government are supportive of the Iranian axis.
“It’s like a tug of war,” Schneider said, noting how in some ways American policy toward Baghdad has been successful in controlling Iranian influence, but Iran still has enough influence and assets to hold sway.