The US is currently embroiled in a tit-for-tat tanker war with Iran. What began as the US and Israel’s strikes on Iran in February has changed drastically over the past few months. Now, one of the conflict’s biggest features is the battle for the Strait of Hormuz. That battle is being fought in an environment that is both complex and unique.
Iran presents a significant threat to ships in the Gulf. The Iranians possess many kinds of drones and missiles, and Iran itself borders the waterway. It’s hard to defend hundreds of miles of waterway. History shows that the country bordering the waterway will always have an advantage, even if it’s weaker.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) has taken a new approach to this conflict; it retaliates when Iran strikes at ships and sinks Iranian tankers.
Earlier this week, CENTCOM stated: “CENTCOM forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers [on] September 8 after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted a US Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days. The US warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters. No American personnel were harmed.”
The Iranians responded by striking at Jordan and have continued to threaten shipping.
Success in the Strait of Hormuz depends on whether ships will continue to traverse the waterway. Risk affects whether ships will opt to enter the strait at all. No captain or company wants to risk their ships, even if the chance of them being sunk or struck is low.
The US has been conducting naval blockades for hundreds of years
Thankfully, the US has been doing everything it can to aid shipping. To that end, the US has been clearing underwater mines.
It appears the US may be slowly gaining the upper hand on several levels. Historically, naval blockades take a long time, and their success requires sticking with them for the long haul. Consider, for example, the US blockade of the Confederate States envisioned in the Anaconda Plan of 1861. It envisioned blockading the Confederacy, and it took many years to achieve that.
Many other wars have seen blockades. In 1806, Napoleon attempted a reverse blockade of Britain to cut off British trade with the rest of Europe. The Germans used U-boats to attempt the very same thing. At the same time, the Germans were also blockaded during the First and Second World Wars, and they attempted to run through the blockade with their own ships. In each case, history shows that blockades can last years.
In the 19th century, Montevideo in Uruguay endured a decade-long siege. If a small area of Uruguay couldn’t be reduced by blockade, what chance is there with Iran? It’s possible that going to war with Iran directly could lead to a decade-long conflict. This would match what happened with Iraq after the 1991 war, when the US had to secure no-fly zones in southern and northern Iraq. Earlier, in the 1980s, the US had to deal with the Iran-Iraq tanker war, which involved both sides targeting shipping.
Can the region get the tanker war right this time? Iran has continually issued warnings and has warned South Korea not to get involved in the Gulf conflict. According to an Arab News report, Qatar said that Gulf countries cannot rely solely on the US for security.
Iran believes it has options
This week, Iran said it would announce a new “restricted” zone in the Gulf. Arab News noted: “The new restricted zone will begin from where the US blockade of Iran begins and will extend into areas of the Gulf, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Sunday in an interview with state TV. Few details were provided on the plan, but Rezaei said any ship entering the new zone would be added to a sanctions list.”
This leads us to the million-dollar question: Will Iran continue to strike at ships? And, if they do, can the US go tit-for-tat with the Iranians and sink enough of their ships to force Iran to choose a new path? Even if the US strikes make Iran shift tactics, Iran may find new ways to wreak havoc. Iran could, for example, strike at energy installations, or attack Jordan more than it has in the past.
Above all else, one thing is clear: Iran believes that it has options.
Iran has many fronts to exploit. The Iranian border with Iraq and the Gulf is hundreds of miles long. Iran also has a long coastline on the Indian Ocean. Iran has proxies in Yemen and other places. The Houthis expanding their role in the Red Sea, for instance, may be a way for Iran to open or exploit a new front.
This is why it will be such a challenge for the US to get the tanker war right. The war is complex, with many factors at play. Worse still, the White House has already signaled that the conflict and high oil prices will continue through the midterms in November.
Despite this, the US seems to have no desire to try another deal with Iran. Iran has proven duplicitous and unwilling to change. The fight against such an enemy will be a long one.