Since the brutally suppressed protests of January 2026, the Iranian diaspora has become more visible and active across the world than ever before. But how much influence can a diaspora actually have on regime change?
The Iranian diaspora has been politically active for many years. During previous waves of protest, such as the 2019 fuel protests and the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom movement, Iranians around the world also took to the streets in large numbers.
Yet many of these demonstrations gradually faded from public attention. Since the violently suppressed protests of January 2026, however, the Iranian diaspora has remained visible and active week after week.
One possible explanation is the emergence of a collective sense of pain and a growing national consciousness among Iranians. As a result, the Iranian diaspora increasingly functions as an extension of a shared national identity. There also appears to be a growing sentiment that the struggle against the current regime is no longer being fought exclusively within Iran, but beyond its borders as well.
Research on authoritarian regimes increasingly highlights the political influence that diasporas can exert. Organized diaspora communities are often viewed as a threat by authoritarian governments because they can mobilize international attention, media coverage, and political pressure (Wackenhut & Orjuela, 2023).
Iranian diaspora shows connection to Iran
Paradoxically, distance from Iran seems to strengthen many Iranians’ connection to developments in their homeland. Within the Iranian diaspora, this connection is reflected in sustained demonstrations, social media campaigns, and continued international attention to the situation in Iran.
After months of demonstrations and activism, signs of fatigue have begun to emerge within parts of the Iranian diaspora. Authoritarian regimes often seek to deepen such divisions and discouragement by portraying critics as traitors or enemies of the state (Glasius, 2017).
History also teaches us that political transformations are often lengthy processes. The Islamic Revolution of 1979 itself unfolded over a period of approximately 395 days.
This moment therefore calls for determination and perseverance from the Iranian diaspora. A particularly important role lies with younger generations of Iranians living abroad. They possess the language skills, freedoms, and international networks needed to keep attention focused on the situation in Iran.
Young diaspora communities are likely to play an increasingly important role in future debates surrounding freedom, security, and democracy in their country of origin.
When discouragement sets in, it is important to remember that visibility and engagement do matter. For many Iranians living in isolation in Iran, the diaspora remains one of the few sources of hope connecting them to the outside world.
To those in the Iranian diaspora who wonder whether their voice still matters: think of those who have paid the highest price for freedom.
Think of the mothers and fathers who have buried their children, and the families who live every day with the fear that a loved one may be arrested or executed.
The writer is a public sector adviser in the Netherlands. Originally from Iran, he fled the country in 1998 and later lived and worked there again between 2016 and 2018. His writing focuses on Iranian society, generational change, and the evolving relationship between religion and state in Iran.