One of the aspects of the pending Iran deal that has not been discussed in the US press is its impact on the Israeli election in the fall.
Almost all polls prior to the deal have the opposition coalition of four Jewish parties in the lead but are falling short of the necessary 61 Knesset seats to take power. This shortfall has led them to struggle with the decision whether to include the Arab party Ra’am in its coalition, as it did in the past two elections.
The leaders of four opposition Jewish parties are not in agreement.
Former prime minister Naftali Bennett (Together) and opposition leader Avigdor Lieberman (Yisrael Beytenu) are unwilling to include Ra’am in any way; former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot (Yashar) will not include the Arab party but has an arrangement, as Rabin had in the 1990s, to maintain a working relationship with them to maintain a governing coalition.
Only Yair Golan (Democrats) would include Ra’am in the coalition.
Bennett’s new position undoubtedly reflects a change in the attitudes of the Likud voters he hopes to attract, in which he is unwilling to grant any political influence to Arab citizens after October 7.
His position may be strengthened by the belief that the Iran deal, which does not fulfill Israel’s security goals, will lead to more Likud defections if Ra’am is excluded.
Bennett’s new position conflicts with his sustained efforts to improve the welfare of Israel’s Arab citizens.
He took leadership in gaining government funding to jump-start Arab entry into the hi-tech sector and dramatically increase the number of Arab teachers in Jewish schools.
These efforts reflected his strong commitment to the ideals of Zvi Jabotinsky, the founder of Revisionist Zionism.
Indeed, Jabotinsky’s words served as the preamble to the 2016 historic five-year plan that gave unprecedented funding to the Arab sector. It read: “After the formation of a Jewish majority, a considerable Arab population will always remain in Palestine.
“If things fare badly for this group of inhabitants, then things will fare badly for the entire country. The political, economic, and cultural welfare of the Arabs will thus always remain one of the main conditions for the well-being of the Land of Israel.”
Moreover, Bennett’s new stance ignored the behavior of Ra’am’s leader, Mansour Abbas, during the Israel-Hamas War. After October 7, Abbas passionately condemned Hamas’s actions.
He also counseled imams in the mixed cities to work together with police and Jewish groups to quell any repeat of the violence that had broken out after the 2021 Gaza war.
In Jaffa, a conference call drew hundreds of Jewish and Arab participants looking for ways to keep the city intact. The group distributed food, clothes, and blankets to Jewish and Bedouin evacuees from border communities.
During the early stages of the war in 2021, only a small share of Arab citizens held the IDF solely responsible for Gaza civilian casualties, substantially less than those who blamed Hamas.
Arab-Israeli political alignments after October 7
At the one-year mark, a substantial majority believed that the ongoing war had fostered a sense of shared destiny between Arabs and Jews. A large majority (71.8%) also supported the inclusion of an Arab party in the Israeli government after the next elections.
It should be noted that while many Likud voters may be unwilling to share political power with an Arab party, it does not mean they are hostile or indifferent to improving the well-being of Arab citizens.
During the war, the extreme Right tried to suspend already approved funds for Arab communities. Not only was this effort rebuffed, but the government added additional supplemental funds.
In 2024, the government led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu enacted a five-year plan to benefit east Jerusalem, a continuation of 10 years of special projects initiated by the past two Likud Jerusalem mayors.
Its confirmation resolution stated that “The development and prosperity of Jerusalem…for the benefit of all its citizens…is based on the integration of east Jerusalem residents into the fabric of urban life and Israeli society.”
Once more, the extreme Right was rebuffed when attempting to eliminate funding to aid Palestinian students attending Israeli universities. Since the initiation of this funding in 2018, east Jerusalem students at Israeli universities surged by 85% to 1,218.
If the opposition coalition is still unable to reach the 61-seat threshold for a governing coalition, it will have to make a painful decision. On the one hand, accepting Ra’am goes against many of its supporters.
On the other hand, a stalemated election brings back to memory the last stalemated election. It took almost two years, with Netanyahu remaining prime minister, and four more elections, before a new governing coalition, which included Ra’am, was elected.
Perhaps Bennett will still bring them into the coalition.
This political integration will further Israeli Arab economic and social integration as well. It would dramatically curtail settler violence in the West Bank by removing the extreme right-wing administration that has turned a blind eye to these actions.
Moreover, the first Bennett government embraced a “Shrink the Conflict” strategy that made accommodations to lessen West Bank flashpoints. Bennett has also been keen on West Bank economic development.
While what he will do with respect to Gaza is unclear, Bennett is very sensitive to international humanitarian concerns. He publicly condemned the 2025 withholding of food aid as a means of pressuring Hamas.
As prime minister, he likely would ease unnecessary roadblocks that could allow rebuilding to proceed.
These efforts in turn might be decisive in enabling Saudi Arabia and more Gulf states to join the Abraham Accords, leading to a more peaceful and prosperous Middle East – a goal that Israel may not have envisioned prior to October 7, but that is certainly on the table now.
The writer is a retired Brooklyn College economics professor, an American Enterprise Institute affiliate, and author of Arab Citizens of Israel: How Far Have They Come? (Wicked Son, 2026), now available on Amazon.