The world is bombarded with contradictory messages, and the messengers seem more confused by the day: Iran won, the US won, Israel lost, US President Donald Trump caved, Vice President JD Vance took over. Let’s ask a few simple questions: Who is in a better position today than on October 7, 2023?
Is Iran better off than it was on October 7? Iran is weaker by nearly every military and leadership metric. Supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strike of Operation Roaring Lion in February 2026, following the June 2025 12-day war. The unseen Mojtaba, Khamenei’s son, has “taken over,” and dozens of top commanders have been killed across two rounds of strikes since 2023.
Iran’s air defenses were largely destroyed, its nuclear program was set back twice, and its Axis of Resistance - Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis - has been badly degraded, while Assad’s Syria collapsed. The economy absorbed months of war, blockade, and a closed Strait of Hormuz.
The regime did not collapse, despite predictions. But society is in turmoil, with hard-liners attacking the US agreement as a sellout, protesting in Tehran and Mashhad, and blaming Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf for the death of the assassinated supreme leader.
Iran insists it maintains its current nuclear status while the US holds off on new sanctions, but the ledger is stark: lost leadership, lost air defenses, lost proxies, lost nuclear infrastructure, and a battered economy. Iran is substantially worse off than it was on October 7, short of total defeat.
Hezbollah, Hamas worse off after Israeli action
Is Hezbollah better off? Unambiguously no. It lost most of its senior leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah and his successors, in 2024, suffered severe losses to its feared 250,000-rocket arsenal and pager-linked command structure, and now faces sustained pressure from the Lebanese government, backed by the US, to disarm. It has slowed disarmament south of the Litani River and rejects disarming north of it, but it is negotiating from weakness, while Israel still holds positions and strikes inside Lebanon.
Is Hamas better off? In terms of capability and leadership, it is devastated: The feared Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, Mohammed Sinwar, Izz al-Din al-Haddad, Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa, Ra’ad Sa’ad, Abu Obeida, and Saleh al-Arouri are all dead. Gaza is leveled, with deaths reported above 73,000, against Israel’s claim of roughly two to three civilians killed per Hamas combatant. Hamas formally agreed to give up governing Gaza and to disarm.
Yet Hamas avoided elimination, rejected the demilitarization framework, and has been rapidly rebuilding civil and military structures by controlling humanitarian aid distribution to keep the population dependent. It controls only 46% of the Gaza Strip. By any normal measure of strength, Hamas is worse off.
What costs did Israel pay after October 7?
Is Israel better off? Militarily, it achieved what looked unthinkable on October 7: repeatedly killing Hezbollah’s and Hamas’ leadership, striking deep into Iran to kill its supreme leader, and setting back its nuclear program twice. The hostage ordeal that haunted Israeli society for more than two years also came to an end. Of the 251 hostages taken on October 7, 168 returned alive, while, tragically, 87 were recovered only as remains.
The costs have been profound: 1,152 military personnel killed, 6,424 wounded, immense economic strain, societal exhaustion, and the absence of any durable political settlement. Still, Israel comes out ahead of all three: Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas are all weaker than they were on October 7, 2023.
The most troubling development may not be military at all. It is the raw Jew-hatred released and spread after October 7: an estimated 2.2 billion people, 46% of the world’s adult population, harbor antisemitic attitudes today, according to the Anti-Defamation League. Most alarming, these prejudices are hardening among younger millennials and Gen Z, suggesting this is not an older generational holdover but something actively renewing itself.
Israel’s best outlook lies in its unique soft power and covenant bridges with global Bible-believing evangelical communities. These communities have remained steadfast in their support, not because Israel is perfect but because they believe the Bible predicted it all. Despite a world increasingly shaped by raw hatred, this soft power may prove to be Israel’s most strategic asset.
Albert Veksler is the global director of the Jerusalem Prayer Breakfast, CEO and founder of JPBM Consulting, and executive director of Global Aliyah.