Though we are no closer today than we were last week to guessing the outcome of the October 27 elections for the 26th Knesset, three events occurred in the last week that could affect the results.
The first event was the Likud primaries, which took place last Monday.
These primaries were probably the least democratic and most manipulative to ever have been held in the Likud, since the party’s leader, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was intent on creating the most attractive (or rather least unattractive) list possible under the circumstances.
His goal was to put unattractive candidates out of realistic places on the list – or as low on the list as possible. In many cases Netanyahu was successful, or at least partially successful.
Thus, the outrageous MK Tally Gotliv, who everyone believed would emerge as one of the winners of the primaries, was pushed down to the 20th slot.
Four ministers – Ze’ev Elkin, May Golan, Avi Dichter, and Idit Silman – were pushed out of realistic slots, as were nine MKs, including the controversial chairperson of the Knesset Finance Committee, Hanoch Milwidsky.
Netanyahu still has some slots that he can use for attractive candidates of his choice, after using three slots for Defense Minister Israel Katz, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, and Tourism, Construction and Housing, Health, and Welfare and Social Security Minister Haim Katz.
He might still decide to use one slot to “save” Agriculture Minister Avi Dichter. However, Netanyahu has been unsuccessful in finding impressive new candidates for the remaining slots, and currently, there is no significant military expert on the list.
While the list has shed some of the more embarrassing current Likud ministers and MKs, it is far from resembling the quality of Likud lists from the more distant past, and is unlikely to improve the Likud’s position in the polls.
However, until the lists are finally deposited with the Central Elections Committee by September 8, some changes might still be introduced.
The second set of occurrences last week that could affect the election results concerns the four Arab parties running in the elections – Hadash, Ta’al, Balad, and Ra’am.
Last Wednesday, the first three announced that they have decided to run together in a single list. Ra’am decided to run on its own.
In the 25th Knesset elections in 2022, Hadash and Ta’al ran together, while Balad and Ra’am ran separately. Balad, considered to be the most extreme of the Arab parties, failed to pass the qualifying threshold, and the Arab parties attained only 10 seats together.
The most seats the Arab parties have ever attained was in the elections for the 23rd Knesset in 2020, when the four Arab parties ran together and attained 15 seats.
Even though this time they are not running together as a foursome, they are predicted to attain a total of 15 seats.
While the threesome is expected to receive more seats than Hadash/Ta’al in the elections to the 25th Knesset, Ra’am, which last December loosened its previous organizational ties with the Islamic Movement, is also expected to increase the number of its MKs from its current five.
Last Saturday, Ra’am’s National Council left the door open for its leader Mansour Abbas to appoint a Jewish candidate – former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz – to the second place on its list.
Segalovitz served as head of Lahav 433 until 2013 and then the Investigations and Intelligence Division in the police. He has also served as an MK since 2019.
If both these plans go through, it is assumed that the percentage of Arab voters who will come out to vote will be high.
This means the number of Jewish Knesset seats could decline from its current 110 to 105, and reduce the chances of a narrow Jewish government of any sort being formed after the elections without the backing of an Arab party.
This is part of the reason for Abbas’s decision to include Segalovitz on his party’s list, with the hope that if a new government of change will emerge from the elections, Ra’am will be able to join the coalition, and Segalovitz might be appointed national or internal security minister on its behalf.
Don't get your hopes up
A third development last week was the establishment of the new Unity Party by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein, both of whom broke away from the Likud.
The two have declared that their goal is to form a wide unity government, presumably one resembling the national unity government of 1984-1988.
That government managed to get Israel out of the hyperinflation left over from the second Likud government.
It worked pretty smoothly, even though the two prime ministers who served in it in rotation – Shimon Peres from the Labor Party and Yitzhak Rabin from the Likud – detested each other.
However, there are several reasons why this idea might have difficulties being realized. The first is that the Unity Party’s chances of passing the qualifying threshold are extremely low.
Secondly, the only party Erdan and Edelstein repeatedly exclude from being part of the unity government they desire (in addition to the Arab parties) is the Democrats. They consider them extreme Left, and find some of the statements made by its leader, former deputy chief of staff Yair Golan, as unpatriotic.
At the same time, Erdan and Edelstein do not exclude Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party, both of which are on the extreme Right, and unacceptable to all the parties that oppose the current government.
Although they advocate passing a law to deal with haredi (ultra-Orthodox) mandatory enlistment for military, national, or civilian service, they do not call for the exclusion of the haredi parties from the national government.
This is despite their refusal to accept any form of service for their 18-year-olds – even those who do not persevere in religious studies.
Erdan and Edelstein also appear to assume that the government that they advocate will be led by the Likud, headed by Netanyahu, without rotation.
Again, arrangements that are likely to be rejected out of hand by all parties that are not members of the current right-wing government, and are supposedly candidates to serve in the proposed unity government.
So much for the relevant developments that occurred in the last week, and are liable to affect the election results.
The writer has written journalistic and academic articles, as well as several books, on international relations, Zionism, Israeli politics, and parliamentarism. From 1994 to 2010, she worked at the Knesset Library and the Knesset Research and Information Center.