Ukrainian officials believe that a Russian attack on Kyiv’s power grid last week marks the Kremlin’s opening salvo to plunge Ukraine into its coldest winter since the war began nearly five years ago.
The New York Times reported Friday that the country’s energy minister, Denys Shmyhal, showed European officials two weeks ago.
Two officials familiar with the talks said that Shmyhal presented the officials with what he described as an intercepted Russian plan to collapse the country’s energy grid.
“Our partners, like us, were struck by its cynicism, by this cold, terrorist calculation of how to destroy our energy sector,” Shmyhal told Ukrainian national news last week.
The NYT viewed a copy of the document, which details a campaign to target Ukrainian power infrastructure with over 1,000 drones, bombs, and missiles. The overall goal of the stated campaign is to cut off power, heat, and water in major Ukrainian cities.
Russia plans to target Ukrainian major cities in winter assault
The first stage of the plan would allegedly knock out power substations near Ukraine’s western borders. The second stage would disrupt services at Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants. The final stage would knock out power to three of Ukraine’s four nuclear power plants.
The plan lists Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa as its top targets, and plans to cut electricity and heat supplies in the cities by up to 90%, as well as severely disrupt sewage treatment.
The plan also states that the Kremlin reportedly will attack the electric switchyards to Ukraine’s three nuclear power plants, which act as the backbone of the country’s power infrastructure.
Russian attacks on Ukrainian water facilities increase in scale
The document also states that Russia will target Ukraine’s water system as well with dozens of glide bombs and ballistic missiles. Ukrainian officials, the report noted, have expressed fears privately that they have limited backup options if the country’s wastewater treatment facilities and pumping stations are attacked.
The report noted that Russia has not attacked Ukrainian water facilities on such a scale before.
But Ukraine’s weakened power grid is just beginning to recover from last winter, when Russian attacks knocked out the power in at least 17 regions of Ukraine, according to the UN’s Human Rights Office. Damage was so extensive that some neighborhoods were left without district heating because nearby power plants were destroyed.
Millions of Ukrainians were left with only hours of electricity per day through the winter months.
Shmyhal, for his part, seemed optimistic in an address to parliament in August that Ukraine would be able to reach 21 gigawatts of available capacity, just enough to surpass the peak demand of 18 gigawatts from last winter.
However, the Russian plan bluntly stated that it aims to eliminate 15 gigawatts of generating capacity, which is what Kyiv had by the end of August.
The NYT noted it could not verify the document Shmyhal presented to European officials. However, it comes after repeated warnings from Ukrainian officials about this winter as well as statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin about his ambitions to knock out the country’s power grid.
Putin said over the weekend that Russia gave Ukraine a “mirror-image response” to attacks on Black Sea shipping routes and Russian oil refineries, claiming that the latter was a civilian target.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared to verify the NYT report in an interview with Reuters on Saturday.
"We saw documents , and we know that they allow them to attack infrastructure, logistics, and especially to attack in the cities, in the villages, everywhere, roads, schools, hospitals," Zelensky told Reuters. "To pressure people to leave the capital, leave different cities: this is the goal of the operation."
Zelensky noted that his army would respond to Russia’s shift in tactics, but emphasized that Ukraine would not target any civilian infrastructure.
"We have to respond in any way (we can). With their attacks on our energy, we have to respond on their energy. First of all, oil refiners, etc.: what gives money to them for this war," Zelensky said. "But we will not respond, of course, just like them, on any civilian objects."
Ukrainian leaders have repeatedly warned citizens of the country as well as international officials that Russia intends to target the country’s power grid this winter.
"Ukrainians understand that this winter could be very harsh for us. But in response, we will have no choice but to make it painful for Russia too," Zelensky told the United Nations General Assembly at the end of September.
"That’s exactly why we say that de-escalation steps are needed before winter.”