Trump says he saved Netanyahu from crushing election defeat - now, he wants influence - analysis

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had not secured a clear parliamentary majority that would allow him to form a government. But the American president was not about to let that minor detail interfere with celebrating what he regarded as his own personal achievement.

Just minutes earlier, upon landing at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington after a campaign trip to Texas, Trump had sounded considerably more cautious.

Asked about the Israeli election, he said he had heard that Netanyahu had performed far better than expected. Perhaps he was winning, perhaps the result was a tie, or perhaps the election had produced a political stalemate. The president repeatedly stressed that it was still too early to draw conclusions and confirmed that he had not yet spoken with Netanyahu since the exit polls were released.

"I think when the endorsement went out, it, it helped him a lot," he said.

He also suggested that even a tie could be considered a victory under the circumstances, describing the coalition negotiations ahead as "a big chess match."

Then came the Truth Social post.

Trump shared a statement attributed to a man named Irving C. Schwartz:

"When President Trump endorsed Bibi Netanyahu, the whole tide turned, and now, rather than a decisive defeat for a Great Prime Minister, it looks like a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu."

The most important sentence came at the end:

"It all took place AFTER the Endorsement by President Trump, who only wants what is good for the Middle East, Israel, and the United States of America!"

Trump was technically quoting someone else. Initially, however, the statement appeared without attribution, leading many to believe it was an official declaration in the president's own words.

But the decision to publish it on his personal account, immediately after Israel's election, spoke for itself.

Trump wanted everyone watching events in Jerusalem to remember the sequence as he saw it: Netanyahu was heading toward defeat. Trump intervened. Netanyahu was back in the game.

The important question is not whether the American endorsement actually changed the election's outcome. At this point, there is no way to determine precisely how much influence it had on Israeli voters' decisions.

The more interesting question is why Trump was so eager to declare himself responsible for the turnaround.

Based on my conversations here in Washington, the answer has far less to do with Israeli ballot boxes than with what happens next in the Middle East.

Let's begin with Netanyahu's coalition partners.

In recent weeks, it has become increasingly clear that the Trump administration does not view Israel through the lens of Israeli domestic politics.

Trump may deliver conservative speeches at rally after rally across the United States, calling for a return to religion, defending traditional family values, and attacking the progressive left. But that does not mean he wants to see those same ideological battles playing out in Jerusalem.

Trump wants results.

To accomplish that, he needs an Israeli government capable of making decisions and carrying them out.

And Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners do not necessarily make that easier.

Frustration with Netanyahu's government has been building in Trump's inner circle for months.

His envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are unhappy with the pace of progress in implementing the president's Gaza plan. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team are troubled by settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank and by the difficulties surrounding efforts to strengthen the Lebanese government.

These are not minor disagreements.

From the White House's perspective, they involve developments that could undermine the regional architecture Trump is trying to build.

And here lies one of the great ironies of this election.

The Republican president, who promotes an unmistakably conservative agenda at home, may actually prefer a broader, more moderate government in Israel, even if it includes figures from the political center or center-left.

Not because Trump has suddenly become a liberal. But because he wants stability.

In recent years, Netanyahu has repeatedly presented the IDF's presence in Israeli-controlled areas of Syria as a security necessity.

The threats are not imaginary. Terrorist organizations, armed militias, and hostile forces have operated in Syria for years, and Israel's government has a responsibility to protect its northern border.

But a different strategic approach is emerging in Washington.

Trump has developed a warm personal relationship with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former jihadist leader who now regularly receives extraordinary praise from the American president.

Trump has described him as a leader doing an excellent job, while his administration sees Syria's reconstruction and the establishment of a new relationship with Damascus as a strategic opportunity.

And this goes well beyond compliments.

Trump has already demanded that Netanyahu begin withdrawing Israeli troops from Syrian territory. "They don't want you there. You should redeploy," Trump told Netanyahu, according to a US official.

From Netanyahu's perspective, Israel's military presence is intended to guarantee the country's security. From Trump's perspective, that very presence could become an obstacle to the relationship he is trying to build with Damascus.

Anyone who believes that a smiling photograph of Trump and Netanyahu together is enough to guarantee Israel permanent freedom of action in Syria should take a closer look at what is happening.

What happens when Trump demands another withdrawal?

What happens if he decides that a security arrangement with al-Sharaa is more important than maintaining Israeli military positions on Syrian territory?

These are questions that some Netanyahu voters should have considered carefully before casting their ballots.

The friendship between the two leaders does not change the fact that each has different national interests.

In Lebanon, the differences are even more apparent.

Trump has made little effort to conceal his dissatisfaction with the scale of Israeli military operations there.

In June, during a visit to France, he publicly criticized Netanyahu's conduct of the campaign against Hezbollah.

"You can do a little softer touch, Bibi. You don't have to knock down a building every time somebody walks into it that's from Hezbollah," the president said, calling for greater Israeli restraint.

Of course, this does not mean Trump rejects Israel's right to defend itself. Quite the opposite: He has explicitly acknowledged that necessity.

But he is unwilling to accept a situation in which every incident along Israel's northern border develops into an escalation that threatens his diplomatic initiatives.

In April, Trump even declared that the United States was prohibiting Israel from continuing its bombing campaign in Lebanon, a statement that reportedly stunned Netanyahu's own office.

It was subsequently clarified that the ceasefire agreement preserved Israel's right to self-defense.

And in July, the president announced a move that would allow American airlines to resume flights to Lebanon for the first time since 1985, subject to the necessary security assessments and regulatory approvals.

That does not mean flights will automatically resume. But the direction of Trump's policy is clear.

He sees Lebanon as a country where investment, commerce, tourism, and aviation can return.

Israel, meanwhile, continues to confront the military threat posed by Hezbollah.

Those two interests can coexist, but they can also collide.

And when they do, Netanyahu may discover that the president who endorsed him twice during the election campaign has no intention of giving him a free hand.

Anyone familiar with Trump knows just how important receiving credit is to him.

That applies to trade agreements, military operations, and foreign leaders alike. The president likes to present other people's successes as achievements he personally made possible.

His relationship with Netanyahu has already provided an especially blunt illustration of this dynamic.

In June, during a bitter confrontation between the two leaders over Israeli strikes in Lebanon, Axios reported that Trump had lashed out at the Israeli prime minister in extraordinarily harsh terms.

According to a US official who described the conversation, Trump told Netanyahu: "You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass."

Trump subsequently acknowledged that he had sharply rebuked Netanyahu, although he did not publicly confirm every word attributed to him.

The significance of that remark goes far beyond its language. It offers a glimpse into how Trump may perceive the personal relationship between the two leaders. He is not merely Netanyahu's friend. He is also someone who believes Netanyahu owes him. And now, following the election, Trump can add another item to the bill.

He has already supported Netanyahu in his confrontation with Israel's judicial system. He has already backed him in the war against Iran.

Now he wants everyone to know that Netanyahu's relatively improved electoral performance should also be credited to him.

And in Trump's world, debts like these matter.

So, indeed, it has not yet been determined who will form Israel's next government.

Netanyahu has managed to improve his position compared with the polls preceding the election, but neither he nor his rivals currently has a clear parliamentary majority.

Trump does not need to wait until the final votes are counted to extract political value from the new situation.

If Netanyahu succeeds in forming a government, the president can portray himself as the man who helped make it possible.

And if Netanyahu is forced to establish a broader government or seek alternative coalition partners instead of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, Trump may be among the biggest beneficiaries of such a development.

As noted, he may also become actively involved in helping bring it about.

From Trump's perspective, a stable Israeli government that allows him to advance his objectives in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon may be far more valuable than an ideologically right-wing government unwilling to compromise.

That is also why there is no need to believe Trump has stopped liking Netanyahu in order to understand what is happening.

The two men have been through wars, crises, and diplomatic and military achievements together.

Trump genuinely appreciates Netanyahu and has offered him an extraordinary level of public support. But there is something else Trump loves, perhaps more than anything. Winning.

And he wants to be the one who declares victory.

That is why the post he published at 12:33 a.m. was not merely a compliment to Netanyahu. It was also a declaration of political ownership.

In effect, the American president was telling the prime minister: You were on your way to losing. I stood by you. And now you're back in the game.

The next part of that message has not yet been spoken aloud, but it is not difficult to read between the lines.

Bibi, you know who you owe. And when I ask you for something on Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, or Syria, you'd better remember that.