“Be Prepared!” has been the motto of the international Scouts Movement since 1907, but it would be worth adopting in Israel for coping the not-too-likely possibility that an enemy would succeed in knocking out its entire electricity supply. In the event that Israel’s foes accomplished such a catastrophic attack, the country should be ready to cope with it.
Now, a new study at the Yannay Institute for Energy Security of Reichman University in Herzliya has warned of potential widespread disruption to essential services in the event of a prolonged power outage in Israel. In recent years, the possibility of a nationwide blackout has evolved from a theoretical threat into an issue with immediate and far-reaching implications. It has also increasingly become part of the public conversation, following warnings issued by the Israel Electric Corporation and Noga, Israel’s national electricity system operator.
The institute, established two years ago by the country’s first and only private university, is dedicated to advancing energy security and resilience in Israel and globally. It pioneers cutting-edge research across technology, economics, regulation, and environmental fields, addressing critical issues in energy economies and security. By producing rigorous studies and policy papers, the Institute provides data-driven, science-based proposals for designing effective, long-term energy policies, said Avri Schechter, its director, in an interview with The Jerusalem Post.
“Israel has been at war with Iran, which targeted our infrastructure, but our lights didn’t go off. We have not only to prevent it but to plan how to cope if it does. After October 7, 2023, many Israelis bought expensive generators to store electricity, but since then, they have realized they are not needed and haven’t managed to sell them even secondhand. There is no reason for Israelis to store large number of water bottles, cash under the floorboards, or endless cans of food in their pantries,” Schechter insisted.
The institute organizes conferences, roundtables, and exclusive forums that bring together researchers, policymakers, and senior executives from the business, and public sectors and educates and empowers the next generation of decision makers in the energy sector.
Blackout could cause breakdown of life-sustaining systems
According to Schechter and Dr. Asaf Tzachor, founder and academic director of the institute, the main danger in a prolonged blackout is not just the loss of electricity itself, but the gradual breakdown of the systems that sustain life in a modern country like Israel: communications, water, transportation, healthcare, food supply, and payment systems. The question guiding the researchers was not when electricity would be restored, but how long essential services could continue to function without it. Rather than reviewing the wide range of threats facing Israel’s energy sector and electricity grid including terrorism, missile attacks, cyberattacks, and geophysical risks, the research team examined how disruptions spread from one critical system to another, ultimately developing into a multi-system national crisis.
Schechter brought together leading experts in a variety of relevant fields and worked on the study for six months. “The risk is low, but we need to think about the repercussions, what to do, and are we ready,” he said.
“The purpose of this study is not to cause alarm – it’s the opposite. We call for a shared professional framework and integrated cross-sector planning. The national challenge is not only how to prevent a blackout, but how to maintain operational continuity if one occurs. After 72 hours, the challenge shifts from electricity itself to the management of essential services and the resilience of the economy. A blackout is a stress test not only for individual systems, but for the interfaces among them. If each system focuses solely on protecting itself, without cross-system coordination, localized protective measures may ultimately weaken the resilience of the system as a whole. Now is the time to prepare – during periods of routine and relative calm – through scenario planning and regular exercises.”
Many systems, from hospitals to tower elevators and water desalination plants have backups in the event of a halt in power, but these will not continue for more than a few days. Planning how to cope can be a proactive and controlled management tool aimed at preventing a widespread collapse, said Schechter, whose study examines the family ranging from a partial reduction in supply, load rationing, managed or unmanaged disruption on a regional scale to a large-scale blackout.
“When people think about a blackout, they imagine a power outage, dark windows, and candles. But the real danger lies further down the chain of consequences. Within minutes to hours, a form of ‘functional darkness’ begins to spread across critical systems, Schechter explained. “Home internet connections fail; water pumps in high-rise buildings stop working; refrigerators and freezers cease functioning. In public spaces, traffic-control systems, road signs, signals, and traffic lights are disrupted. Many essential services – including petrol stations, community healthcare services including kidney dialysis and other lifesaving hospital procedures, automated teller machine and payment systems – become dependent on backup power and connectivity. As the outage continues, resources become scarce and public pressure intensifies. Public order begins to deteriorate.”
This catastrophe will probably cause panic to spread among the citizenry, perhaps not on the first day, but the strain accumulates, and with each passing day, the economic and social fabric of the country begins to unravel, they said.
Communications, water, transportation, are key systems at risk in blackout
One of the study’s key conclusions is that different systems require different preparedness strategies. Certain systems act as what the researchers describe as “risk multipliers” – when they fail, other systems fail with them. The analysis identifies three such systems: communications, which is essential for command and control, coordination, and the dissemination of information to the public; water, because access to safe water is fundamental to public health and institutional functioning; and transportation and fuel supply, because without the ability to move personnel, spare parts, and fuel, emergency services cannot operate effectively, infrastructure damage cannot be repaired, and generator-based backup systems cannot be maintained over time.
He stressed the need for professionals to explain an emergency situation to the general public in a way they will understand and trust.
Schechter, who holds a BA degree in economics and sustainability from Reichman and a master’s degree in public policy from Tel Aviv University (TAU), brings over a decade of expertise in developing national economic policies in energy, renewable energy, energy storage technologies, energy efficiency, and greenhouse gas emission reduction, and setting long-term targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing energy efficiency.
The Yannay Institute head noted that modern society has become very dependent on uninterrupted electricity. “Governments now understand the dangers and have tried to spread out the risk so that it isn’t concentrated in one place and among many sources. AI can help manage cascading infrastructure failures but its role is coordination, recognizing where the failures are, and setting priorities and procedures.”