Likud's primaries for its Knesset list will be held no later than July 28, 2026, the party's constitution committee unanimously decided on Tuesday.
If the Knesset elections are brought forward, the primaries will also be moved up and held two months before the new election date. On Thursday, Likud's court will meet to discuss the new convention and the date to bring it for approval.
However, behind the formal timeline of primaries, a more sensitive struggle is taking place.
Party leaders are wondering whether Likud will hold regular primaries, as has been the practice in recent years, or whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will try to influence the list's composition in another way, out of concern that the list emerging from the ballot box could hurt the party's chances in the election.
Likud officials estimate that although people in Netanyahu's circle pushed in recent weeks for a one-time cancellation of the primaries and the establishment of a steering committee to choose the national list, the chances of that happening have dropped significantly.
Netanyahu sought to cancel Likud primaries, sources say
According to those officials, Netanyahu would prefer a mechanism that would give him broader control over the makeup of the list, out of concern that regular primaries would push to high positions candidates who are vocal and populist, popular with the base and Likud members, but likely to push away moderate right-wing voters.
"Netanyahu would have preferred a different solution," said a source familiar with the details, "but he understands that it would spark very strong opposition inside Likud."
According to the source, Netanyahu has come to terms with the idea of primaries, meaning that he is not currently working to cancel them.
According to those officials, the fact that the constitution committee convened on Tuesday is a significant signal that the movement is moving toward primaries.
The constitution committee is not the body that makes the final decision on the date, but rather drafts a recommendation to be approved by the authorized body: the new convention, if it is convened, or the outgoing central committee if there is a legal obstacle to convening the convention.
Likud said that a petition has been filed with the court to prevent the convening of the constitution committee, but at this stage, no injunction has been issued to prevent the meeting from taking place.
"The convening of the constitution committee is a necessary step," said a senior Likud source.
"It does not matter whether the final decision is made by the outgoing central committee or by the new convention - without a recommendation from the constitution committee, it is impossible to move forward."
Additionally, there are further issues surrounding the Likud convention elections, which were held after more than a decade without elections for the movement's institutions.
After the elections, petitions and claims of irregularities were filed, including over candidates' payments for the convention. Likud's election committee has already granted an extension to candidates alleged to have had their participation fees paid by another party, allowing them to settle the payment themselves by June 15.
Likud officials said that in the election committee's recent discussions, most of the obstacles to convening the convention were, in practice, removed, although there is still the possibility of legal attempts to delay it.
According to Likud officials, Netanyahu has been holding internal polls he commissioned recently, which show that the composition of the list is one of the issues troubling Likud voters, second only to the cost of living.
What could Likud's next list at elections look like?
His concern is that the same primary dynamic will bring to the top of the list candidates who are popular with the base but deter some moderate right-wing voters and floating voters.
"There are about 400,000 votes wavering between the blocs," said a Likud source. "That's eight to 10 seats that could decide the election. An attractive Likud list could help bring them. A problematic list could do exactly the opposite."
"There are candidates who appeal to the base, but do not necessarily help bring in voters from outside," a separate Likud source said.
In private discussions, party members used MK Tally Gotliv as an example. She is very popular among some party members, but is seen as potentially making it harder for Likud among moderate right-wing voters, specifically
In an election campaign in which the main battle will be over those eight floating seats.
The MKs whose names came up in those polls as negative factors were Eli Dalal, David Bitan, Dan Illouz, Sasson Guetta, Moshe Passal, Eliyahu Revivo, Nissim Vaturi, and Shalom Danino.
The other members of the party in similar situations were listed as Shlomo Karhi, Miri Regev, and May Golan, although Netanyahu reportedly still wants them on the list.
In private conversations, Netanyahu expressed satisfaction with the results of the mock primaries held at the party's annual convention at the end of last weekend, in which Amir Ohana came in first by a wide margin. In Netanyahu's view, Ohana represents the classic Likud - one that not only does not scare away voters, but also adorns the list with quality candidates who draw an audience