The opposition bloc is expected to gain 62 seats in the next election, while the current coalition is projected to fall to 48, according to the latest poll published on Friday by Maariv.
Against the backdrop of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's legislative blitz before the Knesset's dissolution, the latest Maariv poll revealed that the opposition coalition, led by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar!, is expected to win a majority of seats in the October 27, 2026 elections.
The poll found that Netanyahu's Likud is losing seats and is tied for first place with Yashar, with both at 22 mandates.
Shas stands at only seven, which is the lowest since the 2022 election when it received 11 seats. The Religious Zionist Party maintains its four seats in this week's poll, while Otzma Yehudit loses seats, dropping to seven.
Blue and White and Balad will not cross the current electoral threshold of 3.25%, the percentage of the national vote required to gain a seat in the Knesset.
Most Israelis oppose including haredi parties in coalition
The Maariv poll also found that 83% of voters oppose the inclusion of Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties in the coalition that is formed after the elections, while 8% support it.
In contrast, 70% of voters support adding an Arab party to the coalition after elections, while 10% oppose the move and 20% say it doesn't matter or they have no opinion.
The public also lacks confidence in the current government's ability to make the right decisions for Israel in the months leading up to the election: only 38% of voters believe it can, while 55% think it won't.
The survey was conducted on July 8-9 by Maariv in collaboration with Panel4ALL Research, led by Menachem Lazar. It involved 500 respondents, representing a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, Jews and Arabs. The maximum sampling error in the survey is 4.4%.