Israel might not be able to push for Iran or Hamas's collapse in Gaza, due to the fanaticism that keeps the group in power, Dr. Col. (res.) Michael Milstein, a senior researcher at the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and a former head of the Palestinian arena in Military Intelligence, said in a 103FM interview on Wednesday.
"Has the enemy been beaten on all fronts, and especially Hezbollah? That is completely clear. But have we broken its personal motivation and ideology? I think we do not always decipher the enemy’s logic or its basic thinking. There is nothing to be done," he explained.
"These are groups that, even after taking terrible blows, still remain very fanatical. That is why, although we desperately wanted to see the collapse of a regime or the collapse of Hamas in Gaza, it did not really happen. I am not sure it is possible. I think that if there is any change, it will happen only because of an Arab Spring in those countries. I do not see how Israel, with the tools it has, can engineer the consciousness of the other side," Milstein added.
Dangers of agreement between US, Iran
He later discussed the agreement signed in Switzerland, warning about its implications for the northern border and Hezbollah’s strategic reading of the situation.
"You read the news about another round of talks, and you begin to understand that this is cosmetic, a supposedly attractive shell that is meant to be the real event. The real event is what kind of arrangement there will be between Israel and Hezbollah, not between the Lebanese government," he said.
"I look at Hezbollah in the last 48 hours, mainly at what happened in Switzerland yesterday, that crisis solution that was formulated without Israel, and when they see the worried voices in Israel and Vance’s stammering, Naim Qassem said two days ago: 'I continue to emphasize two things. How am I being told that there is an Israeli withdrawal, not tactical, from Beaufort or certain pockets? And second, he talks about a return to the October 2023 equation.'
"In other words, it will not be a situation in which Israel can attack whenever it wants, but a situation in which there is no more Israeli activity against Hezbollah. All these discussions will continue until Thursday. I assume Trump will want some kind of framework so he can say, 'Here, I brought you an agreement.'"
Hezbollah understands it has no room to start softening
"Hezbollah is an organization that reads us all the time. It does not always assess things accurately, but it reads us all the time.
"Even from the broadcasts from today or from last night, it sees the frustration among the heads of the local authorities in the North, the frustration in the IDF, it sees the stammering in the US, and when it sees that, it understands that there is no room to start softening. You can see that they are insisting," Milstein said, regarding the conduct of the negotiations.
Milstein also mentioned Qatar’s involvement.
"One of the things Hezbollah is very proud and happy about is that a new card has been added to the deck, and it is called Qatar. The country that drove us crazy in the Gaza arena is apparently returning here too, to the Lebanese arena, also here as a mediator, also here as a factor that the Americans thank for the work it is doing."