Saudi Arabia is less powerful than it may seem at first glance, former head of the National Security Council Prof. Jacob Nagel told 103FM in a Friday morning interview addressing the defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan.
"You have to understand that Saudi Arabia, despite all its wealth and weapons, is to a large extent a paper tiger. It has a great deal of weaponry and a great deal of money, but militarily, it cannot manage to 'get through the day,'" Nagel said.
He added, "If we examine the war in which the Saudis tried to fight the Houthis, we see that they failed despite all the advanced capabilities at their disposal. They have a great many assets, but nothing is really liquid, and they have reached a situation in which, economically, they need help."
"I don't see the Turks sending their navy to attack the Houthis just because they attacked the Saudis. It simply does not fit my realistic view of the region," he stressed.
Saudi Arabia looking for alternate alliances
Nagel therefore believes Saudi Arabia is looking for alternatives.
"It understands that it is in serious trouble, both financially and in terms of security. Even before the latest wars, we saw them make a surprising move and sign an agreement with Iran, simply because they are afraid and feel exposed to the tangible Iranian threat, and to its militias across the Middle East."
He added, "The Saudis' problem is that they possess the most sophisticated equipment, aircraft, and intelligence, but they simply do not know how to use that power effectively on the ground. Therefore, all the talk about new alliances with Pakistan or Turkey should be taken with a very large grain of salt."
At the same time, Nagel sought to explain the Saudi interest in the agreement.
"This is more of a diplomatic maneuver intended to put pressure on the American administration," Prof. Nagel said. "The Saudis are disappointed with the conduct of the United States, especially in light of the shortages in missile and interceptor stockpiles that they identify in the West, and they are trying to signal that they will not remain alone in the campaign against the Shi'ite axis."
Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani agreement accelerated due to regional developments
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed a major joint defense agreement on Friday in the Saudi city of Jeddah. The move marks a significant escalation in efforts by the regional powers to strengthen security cooperation amid growing tensions and the ongoing war between the United States and Iran.
A source close to the Saudi government and military, speaking anonymously to AFP, said, "The agreement has been under discussion for a long time, but recent developments in the region accelerated the process." Two additional regional sources with direct knowledge of the matter confirmed the planned timetable to Reuters.
The closely watched summit brought together Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Erdogan departed Ankara on Friday morning for a brief working visit, accompanied by senior Turkish officials. Sharif and Pakistan's army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, arrived in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, where they were received at Jeddah airport by the deputy governor of the Mecca region.
A spokesperson for Pakistan's Foreign Ministry stressed that despite tensions in the Gulf, the visit has "significance that goes beyond the immediate crisis and short-term considerations."