Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa has been diverting most of the country's resources, from tax revenues to international aid, toward building a large standing army and acquiring weapons systems, according to Israeli security assessments.
Instead of investing in infrastructure, rebuilding the country, or improving the welfare of civilians who suffered through 15 years of war, the extremist regime is focusing on an arms buildup while working to conceal its military expansion strategy. The development is raising concern and red flags within the intelligence community.
According to IDF assessments, Sharaa's operational plans are intended for the point at which he believes he can strike Hezbollah in Lebanon, which he despises, as well as pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias in Iraq.
The belief is that he is waiting for the right moment, combining the completion of advanced stages in his force buildup with a reduction in the US military presence in the region, particularly in Iraq, in a way that would make it more difficult for the United States to prevent such a move.
As Syria continues its military buildup, European countries, led by Germany, are providing aid and embracing the Syrian president in an effort to stem the flow of refugees and pave the way for their return to the country. According to security officials, once Syria stabilizes and is no longer defined as a combat zone, European governments will be better positioned to justify returning refugees.
Moderate Sunni states seeking to moderate Sharaa's policies
At the same time, moderate Sunni states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are working around the clock to draw Sharaa closer to them. They are investing money in him and granting him honors in an effort to soften his agenda, distance him from extremist elements, and moderate his policies, despite his well-known jihadist past.
According to security sources, relations between Turkey and Syria are complicated.
"Al-Sharaa will not be so quick to hand territory over to Erdogan, nor will he necessarily allow him to take control of military bases in Syria. Therefore, to some extent, the recent Israeli strike in Syria helped Ahmed al-Sharaa," one security official said.
"Ahmed al-Sharaa wants to build Syria under his leadership into a regional power that will look in every direction. The moment he decides to, he will also direct military force against Israel."
Israel missed opportunity to make agreement with weakened Sharaa
According to security sources, Israel missed a historic opportunity to reach an agreement with Sharaa when he was still very weak and had only just taken office. Israel could have established facts on the ground regarding the border area and the status of the Israeli Golan Heights, but hesitation on the Israeli side and its focus on other arenas prevented progress.
As a result, the IDF is required to intensify its intelligence-gathering efforts concerning the Syrian military, its personnel and its capabilities, and to prepare operational plans in case it is required to launch a broad operation to thwart hostile intentions or a military buildup that undermines Israel's freedom of action or military superiority.
A future confrontation is only a matter of time, security sources assess.