ISIS invaded Iraq in the summer of 2014, sweeping across the Sunni cities of Iraq, preying on anger among locals who resented the strong-arm government of Nouri al-Maliki. Maliki was close to Iran and was perceived as suppressing Sunni Arabs. ISIS was able to conquer the city of Mosul in June 2014 and then attacked and committed genocide against Yazidis in August. Iraq’s military melted away in the face of ISIS. Divisions evaporated. Thousands of vehicles, many of them supplied by the US, fell into ISIS’ hands.
Iraq asked the US for help. The Obama administration wanted to help and especially wanted to stop the genocide of the Yazidis. The US sent forces back to Iraq, where it had left in 2011. Now the US was back, along with an international coalition to fight ISIS.
Today, the US is leaving again. Iraq’s state media INA says “September 30 represents a significant historic milestone in Iraq’s path toward completing its national sovereignty and strengthening the independence of its political and economic decision-making.” Iraq is treating this like a victory over the US. Instead of thanking the US and having handover ceremonies where the US and Iraqi military shake hands, Iraq is treating the US like the problem. Not ISIS. The US.
“The importance of this step extends beyond its security and political dimensions to highlight the state’s ability to capitalize on this transition to improve the economic environment. Experts and lawmakers see the success of this phase as dependent on the ability to uphold the rule of law, provide a secure environment for investors, and undertake structural reforms that strengthen the confidence of domestic and foreign capital in the Iraqi economy,” Iraq’s state media INA says.
Why does Iraq think the US leaving is good?
Why is it like this? The US trained and equipped the Iraqi army. The US advised and assisted. US soldiers fought ISIS and helped Iraq recover. Iraq’s prime minister was just in the US seeking energy and other deals. Iraq is also seeking British investment. So why is the coalition seen as a problem, rather than getting a round of applause?
Member of Parliament Nasser Turki told the Iraqi News Agency (INA) that “September 30 represents an important historic day, marking the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Iraq, and this will have a positive impact on attracting foreign investment opportunities.” He added that “the state’s strategic plans will focus on working in the service, economic, industrial, and agricultural sectors while taking into account the interests of its people.”
The Security Media Cell, a kind of confab of Iraqi security news that is also official and run by Lieutenant General Saad Maan, said that “Sovereignty Day represents a new chapter in Iraq’s relations with the countries of the world, based on shared interests in accordance with Iraq’s vision and the interests of its people. It reflects the ability of the state and its institutions to assume responsibility for protecting the country and confronting security challenges, thereby strengthening citizens’ confidence in the security and military institutions.”
Meanwhile, The National in the UAE noted that the US and Iraq signed a deal to transfer diplomatic and logistical facilities at Baghdad airport to the Iraqis. This site had often been targeted by Iran and Iranian-backed militias. Iran has attacked Iraq more than 1,000 times, primarily targeting the Kurdistan Region. There have also been more than 600 other attacks by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. Many targeted the US.
Iran's influence in Iraq also impacts withdrawal
There are many other angles to the US withdrawal. Iran still says the US has too much influence in Iraq. Iran wants the US to move away from Iraq and the Gulf. It will view this as a win. Hossein Shariatmadari, representative of Iran's Supreme Leader, accused Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi on Tuesday of accepting and implementing US sanctions against Iranian airlines, amid uncertainty over the resumption of flights between the two countries, Rudaw media reported.
Rudaw also noted that the “Kurdistan Region’s Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs (MoPA) on Monday warned that the planned withdrawal of US-led coalition forces from Iraq on September 30 comes at a ‘sensitive time,’ as Baghdad and Washington proceed with a joint agreement to end the military mission in the country, including operations in the Kurdistan Region.” In addition, it also noted that as the coalition forces left Erbil, the capital of the Kurdistan Region, there were others expressing concern.
Meanwhile, Iranian-backed militias are hinting at their increased role. They are supposed to be disarming. However, Kata’ib Hezbollah “warned Monday that it would shoot down “hostile” aircraft violating Iraqi airspace after the US-led Global Coalition completes its military withdrawal from Iraq this week,” Rudaw noted.
The Kurdistan Region now appears to lack some of the defenses the coalition had provided in the past. It’s not clear how many air defenses may remain. Baghdad has refused to provide the Kurdistan Region with air defenses in the past. This leaves many Kurds concerned. North Press media reported that “Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani warned of the repercussions and dangers of the withdrawal of US and international coalition forces from Iraq, according to Kurdistan 24.”
It remains to be seen what comes next. However, Iraq’s depiction of the US withdrawal as leading to “sovereignty” shows how Baghdad has not valued the US role. Whether Baghdad will value a new bilateral partnership with the US now that forces have left is unclear. It is also unclear how Iran may take advantage of the US leaving.