Crowds gathered to celebrate in Iran as the Islamic regime launched ballistic missiles toward Israel, destroying the period of relative calm since the pause in hostilities in April, according to footage released by the Islamic regime.
Celebrations were seemingly held in Tehran and Kermanshah, where crowds were recorded waving the regime’s flag alongside the flag of Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based arm of the IRGC.
The Islamic regime attacked Israel late on Sunday night and early on Monday morning, claiming the missile barrage was retaliation for Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Israel began targeting Hezbollah positions after the group violated an existing ceasefire by launching attacks in response to the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Iranian state-linked news site Tabnak shared videos of individuals driving through the streets, honking their horns in celebration and screaming “Allahu Akhbar” (God is most great).
In a video published by NBC News, one civilian claimed that the celebrations were to show a sense of “pride” that Iran’s missile capabilities “still exist” despite months of war with both Israel and Washington, and that “the ability to make decisions still resides within our officials.”
While the regime has painted a picture of support for the attacks on Israel, the war so far has devastated Iran’s already struggling economy and caused significant upheaval to civilian life, and experts have told The Jerusalem Post that such videos cannot be taken as a sign of support for the regime.
“These scenes need to be understood carefully before being read politically. What Iranian state television is broadcasting as a ‘national celebration’ is, in practice, a managed rally of core regime loyalists from the Basij networks, the hardline faithful, the people for whom the Islamic Republic’s survival is a personal stake,” Roger Macmillan, a security analyst and expert on the Islamic Republic, commented. “It is not a representative sample of Iranian public opinion, and it would be a serious analytical error to treat it as one.”
Addressing support for the Islamic regime amid the current economic crisis, Macmillan explained, “The Iranian population has lived through years of economic devastation, brutal suppression of dissent, and a war that has cost them enormously. The regime knows its domestic legitimacy is fragile. These rallies serve a function, as they are little more than heavily choreographed signals of cohesion at a moment of military escalation, not spontaneous expressions of popular sentiment.”
A deadly intersection of soaring prices, protests, and inflation
Arman Khaleghi, head of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, Industries and Mines, told Qatar’s Al Jazeera over the weekend that the US’s naval blockade of Tehran’s own blockade had been one of five factors that led to Iran’s inflation levels reaching the highest seen since the Second World War.
“We are facing a deadly intersection between the elimination of the preferential currency [the subsidized exchange rate for providing basic goods], which caused food prices to soar; the protests the country witnessed at the beginning of this year, which disrupted the market system and compromised the country’s security; followed by the [US-Israeli] ‘Ramadan War,’ which is not devoid of devastating inflationary effects,” Khaleghi said.
“These were followed by the annual increases in wages and energy prices at the beginning of the new Persian year, and finally, the naval blockade that hindered import and export chains.”
The annual inflation made a historic jump to 77.2% from April 21 to May 20, with a monthly increase of $8.5 and a point-to-point inflation of 113% for goods, according to a recent report by the Central Bank of Iran.
“With the outbreak of the war, people rushed to hoard basic goods, such as food and detergents. Demand jumped despite there being no real shortage in the markets, and this feverish rush alone is enough to drive up prices,” he claimed.
Shortages contradict official report on economy
While Kaleghi has claimed there is “no real shortage” of goods, the central bank reported Iran’s merchandise imports fell by a sharp 32% during the fiscal year, ending March 21, compared to the period prior. Numerous media sites have also reported on medication shortages and a severe cost-of-living crisis since the conflict broke out.
Iran’s economic instability may see its supporter camp gradually reduce, and with it, the size of these celebrations, Macmillan theorized.
“Once the regime stops making salary payments, their will to fight will ebb away. The economic hardship is biting, and when the regime enforcers are no longer able to buy food, then this will likely make them question their leadership and the IRGC,” he concluded.