On July 4, Americans will mark 250 years since their declaration of independence from Great Britain. On the same day, Iranians across the world are being urged to gather outside US embassies as part of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi’s “Global Week of Action for a Free Iran,” running from July 4 to July 9. The campaign also marks six months since the January protests against the Islamic Republic, which saw an estimated 40,000 people massacred by the Iranian regime’s security services.
Meanwhile, in Tehran, the Islamic Republic is preparing to begin the long-delayed funeral ceremonies for former supreme leader Ali Khamenei. The processions, like America's birthday and Pahlavi's call for protests, are scheduled to begin in Tehran on July 4, continue through Qom, Najaf, and Karbala, and end with his burial in Mashhad on July 9.
This is the image the Islamic Republic wishes to project throughout the week, while distracting Iranians from the rest of the world. That of a state in mourning, and a nation gathered around the coffin of the man who ruled it for decades.
If the regime wants to use Khamenei’s funeral to present unity, Iranians abroad must use the same week to show that unity belongs to the people, not to the Islamic Republic.
That does not require every Iranian opposition faction to settle every argument. It does not require monarchists, republicans, liberals, leftists, communists, anarchists, and nationalists to suddenly agree on the constitution of a future Iran. Those debates are real, and they are important, because they will help shape the future of the country that succeeds the Islamic Republic.
But they are not for now. That country cannot be built if the current regime survives because its opponents are too busy fighting one another.
For now, the main issue is not the flag, the presidency, the monarchy, nor the parliament. The central issue is pressure, and the regime must not be allowed to turn one of its weakest moments into a display of strength.
The Islamic Republic has always relied on two arguments when speaking to the outside world. The first is that it is stronger than it looks. The second is that there is no alternative. Both arguments depend on the opposition helping Tehran by appearing divided and distracted by infighting and power struggles.
Iran facing economic disruption, infrastructure failures
That is why it is imperative that the Iranian opposition unites as strongly as possible, putting aside their differences. The situation inside Iran is not as rosy as the regime wants it to appear. While the state prepares funeral processions, Iranians are living through the continued daily consequences of economic decay, failing infrastructure and political paralysis that led to the outbreak of nationwide protests in December.
A banking disruption lasting more than two weeks has left many Iranians struggling to access their accounts, make purchases or transfer money. The problems began on June 13, and customers have reported continued failures in mobile banking, card-to-card transfers, check processing and routine transactions.
The same is true of water and electricity. Across Iran, daily outages have disrupted life as summer heat bears down. Residents from Khuzestan, Ilam, Lorestan, East Azerbaijan, Alborz, Tehran, and elsewhere have described hours-long power cuts and recurring water shortages. In Boumehen, near Tehran, residents said they had running water on only two days during one recent week, and only for a few hours.
Meanwhile, wildfires have continued to expose the same pattern of governmental neglect. A fire in protected Zagros forests near Behbahan burned for a fourth day this week, with local volunteers and rescue teams struggling while officials acknowledged the lack of dedicated aerial firefighting capacity in Khuzestan. One volunteer died after suffering burns while helping to fight the fire.
These crises all mount up. Banking disruption, water shortages, blackouts, and wildfires all point to a regime that can mobilize for ceremonies and repression, but cannot provide its people with water, electricity, functioning banks or competent disaster response.
Nor is the regime internally calm.
The recent interruption of Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s state television interview revealed the true internal strife within the Islamic Republic. According to Iran International, parliament’s media office said the interview had been recorded in full and delivered to IRIB (state broadcaster), but that it was stopped midway through without prior notice. IRIB later said the cut was caused by a technical problem. The missing section reportedly dealt with some of the most sensitive issues facing the regime, including possible IAEA nuclear inspections, efforts to release frozen Iranian assets, the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, and the strategic message attributed to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
Perhaps it was a technical problem. Perhaps it was not. Either way, at one of the most sensitive political moments in the Islamic Republic’s recent history, even the carefully managed language of one of the regime’s most senior officials became too unstable for state television.
The opposition should keep all this in mind amid squabbling. The regime is not invincible, but it is not gone yet either. It is under pressure, but pressure must be maintained.
Iran's diaspora must keep Iran issue alive in Western capitals
This is where the Iranian diaspora has a specific role.
Iranians inside the country face surveillance, arrest, imprisonment, and death. They know the price of open defiance as the six-month anniversary of the January massacres approaches. Those outside Iran do not face the same risk and therefore can act differently. They can stand outside embassies and keep the issue alive in Western capitals.
Pahlavi’s call for a Global Week of Action is therefore an opportunity. It should not become a personality contest, nor another round of old diaspora arguments. It should be treated as a platform to make a clear statement to Washington amid negotiations with Iran - do not give this regime a lifeline.
The Islamic Republic wants this week to be about Khamenei. The opposition should make it about the people he ruled over, murdered, imprisoned, impoverished, and tried to silence.
This week, the message from the diaspora should be loud and strong. The regime may bury Khamenei, but it must not be allowed to bury the innocent Iranians who are suffering every day.