Airstrikes were reported in Iran on the evening of July 8. The strikes come after the US also launched strikes on July 7 due to two days of Iran’s attacks on shipping. Overall, Iran and the US appeared to trade blows, with Iran having attacked ships and then attacking Gulf countries. Iran claimed dozens of strikes; the US claimed it hit 80 targets. Now the US is seizing the initiative through new strikes.
US Central Command said in the evening of July 8 that “at the direction of the Commander in Chief, U.S. Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway.”
US President Donald Trump at the NATO Summit in Ankara earlier on July 8 said that Iran was not being serious in the talks on the Memorandum of Understanding. He slammed the Iranians. It now appeared that new strikes would continue in the evening of July 8 and into the next day. It is clear the US is seeking to seize the initiative. Instead of responding, the US is trying to take the ball and run with it. As such, this appears to be part of a new US policy since April aimed at regaining the initiative, or at least shaping the battlefield and determining the tempo of operations.
Iran may have been counting on US backing down
Iran is likely not surprised by the new strikes. They may have gambled that there was a 50% chance the US would back down. Iran has counted on Trump backing down in the past. Iran’s regime believes it can outlast the US. It also believed the US would refrain from strikes during the funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Khamenei’s body is now in Iraq, part of a week-long series of events linked to the funeral.
It’s possible the new strikes could lead to new rounds of Iranian attacks. This could result in attacks on the Gulf or on ships, or Iran could mobilize militias in Iraq or the Houthis in Yemen. Iran has been seeking to bolster the Houthis in the last weeks. This means it’s possible a new front could develop.
Retaliation for Iranian attacks in Strait of Hormus
What is known about the strikes so far is that the Associated Press reported, “Several explosions rock Iran as US launches new strikes.” The report said, “President Donald Trump on Wednesday warned Iran that the U.S. was preparing for another night of strikes, just hours after he said the ceasefire was over, but negotiations can continue. He said the strikes are continued retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Open-source intel accounts on X claimed that some of the strikes were on Bandar Abbas, an Iranian coastal port city. The city is the capital of its region and has a population of around 500,000 people. It is on the Strait of Hormuz, and therefore dominates a strategic area and the waterway. It is also the site of an Iranian naval base. The Iranian navy was largely destroyed by the US in the conflict that began with US and Israeli strikes on February 28. Iran still has an IRGC navy of small fast boats as well as many missiles and drones.