In situations in which political deadlock is a real danger following elections in parliamentary democracies such as our own, in which the political blocs are rigid in their composition and real grand-coalitions (like in 1984-88) are no longer a real option, what worries each of the blocs is that none of the lists that are considered their “natural components” should fail to pass the qualifying threshold.
In Israel, the qualifying threshold (the minimal percentage of votes a list running in elections must get to enter the Knesset) started at 1% and rose to 3.25% in the elections to the 20th Knesset in March 2015.
This was done in an effort to reduce the number of very small parties in the Knesset.
In the 1992 election to the 13th Knesset, the first Israeli election in which the qualifying threshold was raised from 1% to 1.5%, the Likud bloc lost five Knesset seats because of lists that did not pass the new threshold, enabling Labor’s Yitzhak Rabin to form his second government.
In the elections to the 25th Knesset in 2022, the “just not Bibi” bloc was greatly weakened because Meretz, with which the Labor party under Merav Michaeli refused to run in a single list, failed to pass the threshold.
Had the two parties run in a single list, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s “all Right” government formed after that election would have had the support of only 61 Knesset members.
If Netanyahu (then leader of the opposition) had not played every trick in the game to get Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party to agree to run together with Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party in a single list, it is possible that at least one of them would not have passed the qualifying threshold, and the “all Right” government we still have today would never have been formed.
In the current buildup to the upcoming elections, the two Jewish blocs are worried that their potential members will fail to pass the qualifying threshold.
This is while the Arab parties ensured that the votes of Balad, which failed to pass the threshold in the elections to the 25th Knesset, would not be lost again by agreeing that it would run this time in a single list with Hadash and Ta’al.
Opinion polls suggest that this move will increase the total number of Arab seats in the 26th Knesset from 10 to 13 – or even 15.
Until last Tuesday (September 1), the potential number of seats that might be lost due to lists failing to pass the qualifying threshold was as many as 14 – mostly from the Right/religious bloc.
What changed on Sept. 1 was that Netanyahu, after receiving an absolute refusal from Ben-Gvir to run together with Smotrich again, whose party was considered to be in danger of not passing the qualifying threshold if it ran on its own, managed to get Smotrich to run in a single list with Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party.
Feiglin is a rather eccentric right-wing libertarian who was a Likud MK in 2013-2015 and ran independently in the 2019 election, but withdrew when opinion polls showed that he would fail to pass the threshold.
He then ran again as part of the Likud list in the 2022 elections, but in an unrealistic slot. He decided to run again this time, as leader of the Zehut party, and without a real chance of passing the qualifying threshold.
At the moment, it seems as though the Religious Zionist/Zehut list has a good chance of safely passing the qualifying threshold.
Last chances
It is said that Netanyahu is still trying to get Ofer Winter to join Smotrich and Feiglin with his new People of Israel party.
The party is right-wing and critical of Netanyahu over his conduct over the last three years, but is nevertheless willing to join a government headed by him after the elections.
The solution Winter propagates for the Gaza Strip is the voluntary emigration of its whole Palestinian population. If People of Israel runs on its own, it is liable not to pass the qualifying threshold.
Last Friday, Gilad Erdan announced that the Unity party, which he formed with Yuli Edelstein – another former senior Likud member like himself – decided to withdraw from the race.
This is because they had not managed to find anyone to run with (one such effort that failed was with Benny Gantz’s Blue and White), and opinion polls show that on their own they would fail to pass the qualifying threshold.
Though there was never an option that the Unity party might join a narrow government under Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot, I believe both Erdan and Edelstein were among the dwindling number of former Likud members who were and still are respected in Center/Left circles for their demeanors and conduct.
At the moment, it doesn’t seem likely that either of them will find a home in any of the existing lists running, though there were speculations that Edelstein might still find a new political home in Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu.
As to Gantz’s Blue and White party, of which little remains, it is not yet clear whether Gantz will decide to refrain from running.
As to the Center/Right Zionist Home/Reservists party established a month ago by Yoaz Hendel (who served as communications minister in 2021-22) and Chili Tropper (who served as minister of culture and sports in 2020-22), currently none of the opinion polls show them passing the qualifying threshold.
Under the circumstances, Tropper will probably join Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party or Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party. It is currently not known what Hendel plans to do.
Concerning the two parties that are expected to be the largest in the next Knesset, Likud and Yashar, Netanyahu must decide about appointments for three realistic slots on the Likud list to the 26th Knesset by tomorrow evening, either of totally new candidates or of candidates who were elected to low slots in the Likud primaries three weeks ago.
Eisenkot must also decide by then whether Yashar and Bennett’s B’Yachad will run together in a single list (as requested by Bennett) or separately.
Together they will definitely be the largest party by far in the 26th Knesset (with as many as 37 seats). However, that will not necessarily enable the new union to form the next government.
Last but not least, a curious question is whether a new, less conservative haredi (ultra-Orthodox) party has any chance of passing the qualifying threshold and will register with the Central Elections Committee by tomorrow.
Probably not.
The writer has written journalistic and academic articles, as well as several books, on international relations, Zionism, Israeli politics, and parliamentarism. From 1994 to 2010, she worked at the Knesset Library and the Knesset Research and Information Center.