How to implement regime change in Iran - opinion

Although the United States and Israel are preoccupied with elections, the Iranian threat has not gone away.

They are executing their own people en masse for the crime of dreaming about a better future for themselves and their children. For this reason, elections or no elections, we cannot stop seeking regime change in Iran. And these days, regime change is within the realm of possibility.

Atakan Araz, from the South Azerbaijani Republic Party, a member of the South Azerbaijan Statehood Council, stated in a recent interview: “Our assessment is that the Islamic Republic is currently facing an unprecedented combination of a legitimacy crisis, economic and structural erosion, external pressure, war, social discontent, and protests emerging across multiple centers.”

This makes the mullah’s regime more vulnerable at this time.

Araz continued: “It is true that a severe economic crisis or protests, on their own, do not necessarily mean the inevitable collapse of a regime. However, when they occur simultaneously and in combination with other factors, they can become effective levers for political change and the erosion of governing capacity.

“Recent efforts to strengthen mechanisms of control and repression may also indicate the ruling structure’s concern over increasing social risks and the possibility of political and structural collapse.”

Eldar Qaradaghi, chairman of the South Azerbaijan Liberation Party and a board member of the South Azerbaijan Statehood Council, emphasized: “A successful strategy for changing the Iranian regime must move on four fronts simultaneously: 1. Sustained military pressure and the fear of war; 2. Deep and impermeable sanctions; 3. Strategic pressure on the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz; and 4. Strengthening the political power of Iran’s non-Persian peoples.”

He explained that Iran cannot be understood only through Tehran: “Its economic, ecological, ethnic, religious, and social contradictions have become deeply intertwined, while the regime’s greatest instrument of control is not merely its nuclear or missile programs, but its ideological and propaganda system.

“For an authoritarian regime with limited economic resources, the continued threat of military action can create greater psychological pressure than war itself. At the same time, sanctions must be directed particularly at oil revenues, banking, logistics, and the networks used to circumvent restrictions.

“Decades of sanctions have shown that incomplete enforcement and alternative channels, particularly through China and Russia, can preserve the regime’s resilience. Sanctions that are imposed on one side and circumvented on the other ultimately strengthen Tehran’s position.”

Israel and America will require boots on the ground to implement regime change, but those boots do not need to be US and Israeli troops, as many Iranian people seek regime change, principally among them Iran’s ethnic minority groups.

Savash Merendli, the representative of the South Azerbaijani Human Rights Centre, stressed that the regime’s oppression against minority groups has been widespread to the point that it constitutes cultural genocide. He also noted that the Pahlavi regime mistreated the South Azerbaijani population.

“We, at the South Azerbaijani Human Rights Center, call on the international community to recognize the ongoing oppression of South Azerbaijanis under the Iranian Persian regime,” he said.

“For more than 100 years, since the1925 collapse of the Qajar Empire, our people have faced systematic discrimination, humiliation, assimilation, and political repression under both the Pahlavi regime and the so-called Islamic Republic. Our Azerbaijani Turkish language was banned from formal education, our national identity and history marginalized, and millions of South Azerbaijanis assimilated.

Javad Ranjbar, a board member at the South Azerbaijan National Statehood Council and a representative of the South Azerbaijan Student Union, said: “In our view, nearly half a century of experience under the Islamic Republic of Iran has demonstrated that the existing political system has failed to provide adequate legal and institutional mechanisms for democratic political participation, national rights, and fundamental freedoms.

“The violent suppression of political, national, and social protests, political imprisonment, executions, and the use of lethal force against protesters have raised serious concerns under international human rights standards.”

“In our historical memory, Pahlavi rule is associated with extreme centralization of power, political repression, and policies directed against the identity, language, and national rights of non-Persian peoples, including the Azerbaijani people,” he said.

“From our perspective, Reza Pahlavi has not made a clear and convincing break with these aspects of the political record and legacy of his father and grandfather; rather, in many of his positions, he has continued to defend that political legacy.

“Furthermore, his positions regarding the right of non-Persian peoples to self-determination, their national rights, linguistic rights, and mother-tongue education have failed to earn the confidence of South Azerbaijani political forces. We therefore cannot accept replacing the Islamic Republic with a system that reproduces the same logic of centralization and disregard for the rights of non-Persian peoples in a different form.”

According to Ranjbar, “Today, Turks, particularly Azerbaijani Turks, constitute the largest national community in the geography known as Iran. Therefore, no sustainable, successful, and democratically legitimate political change can take place without their active participation and political will. The same principle must apply to Baloch, Arabs, Kurds, and other non-Persian peoples.”

He noted that “South Azerbaijani political organizations are prepared to cooperate both with the political organizations of these peoples and with democratic Persian opposition forces in pursuing a transition from the Islamic Republic, but such cooperation must be founded upon clear and mutually accepted principles.

“The first and most fundamental of these is recognition of the right of peoples to self-determination. This must be followed by legally guaranteed rights to education in one’s mother tongue and its free use in public life, equal political participation, and other fundamental national and civil rights.”

Ranjbar stressed that “cooperation among the political organizations of non-Persian peoples must likewise be based on mutual respect and the rejection of territorial claims against one another, including territorial claims against the cities and territories of South Azerbaijan. If these principles are mutually recognized, I believe there is a genuine possibility of building broad and legitimate political cooperation among forces seeking an end to the Islamic Republic.”

A coalition of South Azerbaijanis, Turkmen, Baloch, Kurds, Ahwazi Arabs, Lors, and other ethnic minority groups can fight to topple the regime on the ground. At the same time, Israel and America could provide air support.

And this time, US President Donald Trump should fight until the job gets done, instead of stopping in the middle, as the Iranian threat will not cease until this regime is toppled.