Brazil’s presidential election is heading to a run-off on October 25. The development followed Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, winning the first round of the election and defeating left-wing President Lula da Silva by several million votes.
Lula has been a fixture of Brazilian politics for decades. He is also a well-known figure globally on the left. He has been a leader in BRICS and has also taken a stance that has appeared soft on Moscow in the Ukraine-Russia War.
Former president Bolsonaro was a supporter of Israel when he was in office, joining a trend of right-leaning leaders in Latin America who tend to be closer to Israel. This means that the run-off in Brazil could be important. It is widely seen as part of a trend in Central and South America where more right-leaning candidates are winning.
In a January interview with The Jerusalem Post, Flavio Bolsonaro said that if elected, he would move Brazil’s embassy to Jerusalem within the first six months of his mandate.
In April, Argentinian President Javier Milei and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the launch of the Isaac Accords. This illustrated the growing partnership between Israel and Argentina.
At the time, the Foreign Ministry noted that “the Isaac Accords constitute a new strategic framework aimed at strengthening cooperation between Argentina, Israel and like-minded partners in the Western Hemisphere, the descendants of Isaac and nations of the Judeo-Christian tradition, in defense of freedom and democracy, and in the fight against terrorism, antisemitism, and drug trafficking. Participating countries will pursue concrete actions based on these principles.”
When Netanyahu again met Milei in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, the Isaac Accords were in the spotlight.
Netanyahu, Milei launching Isaac Accords sets foundation for Israel-LATAM relations
The two leaders discussed continued cooperation between their countries and the positive strategic shift for Israel taking place in Latin America, which makes possible the expansion of the "Isaac Accords" to deepen security and economic cooperation between Israel and the countries of Latin America,” the Prime Minister’s Office noted.
These accords have backing or potential backing in Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Honduras, Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia, and Panama, the Post noted in June.
The “rightward shift” in Latin American politics is getting a lot of attention now. Some commentators in the US believe it is partly due to the influence of the Trump administration and the end of USAID in the region. The argument is that USAID had funded left-leaning programs.
The Trump administration has made it clear that it supports certain leaders, such as Argentina’s president. The US also made it clear it supported Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia, who won a narrow election there. The Guardian even claimed that the Brazil election is part of the US search for “control” of Latin America. Some call this the "Donroe doctrine," a new American version of the Monroe Doctrine. Arresting Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 raid was part of this.
The New Arab sees the changing political landscape as helping Israel ties. It noted, “Nicaragua, Colombia, Mexico, Chile, Bolivia, Cuba and Belize all intervened in support of South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), while Colombia went one step further, placing a total ban on coal exports to Israel and terminating its bilateral free trade agreement.” Now it argues that Bolivia and Honduras have shifted tack and become closer to Israel. Chile and Honduras have recalled their ambassadors from Israel.
The August New Arab article notes “the new president of Colombia, Abelardo de la Espriella, is ready to renew ties with Israel by ramping up security coordination, resuming coal exports, and withdrawing from The Hague Group. This week, the new right-wing government also recognized Israel's claim to the occupied Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in 1967, becoming only the second country to do so after the Trump administration in 2019.”
Israel, Venezuela ties improving after Trump admin. ousts Maduro
Venezuela-Israel ties are also improving. Israel sent a team to help after an earthquake. Consular services have been renewed after 17 years. “Venezuela's government, now led by Interim President Delcy Rodriguez, said an Israeli humanitarian delegation visited the country afterdeadly earthquakes in June and discussions took placeamong senior officials from both nations, leading to the deal to resume consular services,” Reuters noted in August. Colombia has moved to improve ties with Jerusalem.
In July, Colombia’s Foreign Minister Omar Bola Escobar met Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar. Sa'ar began visiting South America in August, going to Ecuador and Colombia.
Middle Eastern countries are watching the developing Israel-Latin America ties. For instance, Turkey’s Anadolu Agency has closely watched which countries are moving embassies to Jerusalem. It noted in an April article that Argentina had joined Honduras, Guatemala, and Paraguay in the move.
The changing political map of Central and South America also has ramifications for Israel's defense ties and these countries acquiring new defense technology solutions.
Latin America has not historically been a major market for Israel in terms of overall defense spending. Latin America only made up two percent of defense sales in 2025. That is around $380 million.
Countries in Latin America generally do not spend much on defense. Brazil, the largest spender in the region, is still ranked 21st globally. This makes its spending smaller than Spain, Australia, Japan, Turkey, and Italy, for instance.
As a percent of GDP, Brazil spends around one percent. Brazil is one country that has a defense industrial base. Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Argentina round out the top five Latin American spenders. As a percentage of GDP, Colombia, Uruguay, Ecuador, Honduras, and Chile spend between 1.3 and 3.3 percent on defense.
In August, Defense Minister Israel Katz "signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Honduras’ Defense Minister, Enrique Rodríguez Burchard, to deepen defense cooperation between the State of Israel and the Republic of Honduras," the ministry said.
"The MOU with Honduras joins a series of defense cooperation agreements advanced by the IMOD over the past year with partners around the world, as part of the Ministry’s strategy to expand Israel’s circle of defense partnerships, strengthen strategic ties with friendly nations, and deepen cooperation between Israel’s defense industries and international markets,” the ministry noted.
This suggests Israel wants more defense sales in the region. However, the big question is whether the new political shifts will lead to major changes on the diplomatic and defense fronts, or in trade in general. The overall story in Latin America is that even though there have been elections and changes, many of the shifts have been narrow.
The continent is broadly democratic with the exception of Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba. Many countries have old political parties such as the Colorado party in Uruguay and Paraguay. The Peronist party in Argentina was founded in 1946. It’s plausible that the left may return to power in some countries over the next decade.
Brazil's election is a juggernaut in terms of size. With some 110 million voters, it basically has more voters than all the other countries in South America combined. Overall, votes in recent elections in South and Central America are around 300 million, and if one looks deeply at the data, the continent is actually divided almost equally between left and right, with the left still having the advantage in countries such as Mexico. It also remains to be seen if Venezuela will have free and fair elections in the future.