Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has expressed hope that Israel's elections could create an opportunity to renew peace talks. His surprising comments were reported by the AFP and circulated in regional media, such as Arab News in Saudi Arabia.
“For many years now, we have been extending a hand to the Israeli side in order to achieve peace with them, so that Israel and Palestine may live in security, stability, and peace,” Abbas said during a meeting with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides in Nicosia, according to Arab News.
The interesting comments indicate that Abbas hopes Cyprus can play a role. Cyprus has grown increasingly close to Israel over the last decades. This is part of a wider East Mediterranean shift alongside Greece. Cyprus and Israel have new defense deals as well. Cyprus has also had good ties with the Arab states. “We hope that, immediately after a new Israeli government is formed, we will be able to engage in dialogue together,” Abbas added.
Arab News indicated that the comments illustrate how the Palestinian leadership is watching developments in Israel. However, the question is whether a new Israeli coalition would be willing or able to make significant changes in policy.
The Israeli-Palestinian peace process has been largely frozen for decades. The last major US-backed negotiations, led by Secretary of State John Kerry, collapsed in 2014. Since then, the political and security environment has changed dramatically. Both Abbas and Israel’s prime minister have been in charge for the last two decades.
Far-right calls for dismantling of PA
Jerusalem has shown no interest in working with the PA. In fact, many voices on the far-right have suggested dismantling the Palestinian Authority. After the attack near Hebron earlier this month, many of the officials who came to the site suggested it was an example of why the PA should be weakened.
The Palestinian Authority continues to exercise limited self-rule in parts of the West Bank, while Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack and the subsequent war in Gaza have transformed Israeli attitudes toward Palestinian security and governance. There have been increasing tensions and clashes in the West Bank. It’s not clear how this trend could be reversed. Nevertheless, Israeli security forces tend to work well with their Palestinian Authority counterparts on security issues. This reflects how the politicians may say one thing, but the reality on the ground is different.
Even if Israel’s prime minister is replaced, a new Israeli government would inherit these challenges. The PA has not had elections since 2006, fearing a Hamas victory. In Israel, the parties that are favorable to Gadi Eisenkot might adopt a different diplomatic tone toward Ramallah. However, they would face pushback to do much more than that.
The composition of any coalition would also matter. Parties that agree on replacing Israel’s current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have very different positions regarding the Palestinians, settlements, and negotiations. The White House would likely want to see progress in Gaza with the Board of Peace. This could mean enabling Palestinian technocrats to help people in Gaza be free of Hamas.
There is also the question of whether the Palestinian leadership is positioned to negotiate a comprehensive agreement.
Abbas has led the Palestinian Authority for more than two decades. His presidency has faced questions about legitimacy, particularly because Palestinian national elections have not been held since 2006. The division between Fatah, which dominates the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas remains another major obstacle.
Any negotiations would need to address who represents Palestinians in Gaza, how the territory would be governed, and whether Palestinian security institutions could prevent renewed attacks on Israel. The Board of Peace has a technocratic team that has been largely prevented from entering Gaza by Israel. The Board was waiting for the elections. There is supposed to be an international force for Gaza, called the ISF. A new logistics center was even built for it.
These questions cannot be resolved simply by having a different Israeli prime minister. Abbas may see an opportunity to reestablish the Palestinian Authority as a diplomatic partner, particularly as international attention turns toward Gaza's reconstruction and future governance. However, renewed dialogue is not the same as a real peace process.
The United States will also play a central role in determining whether talks resume. The Trump administration has focused on regional diplomacy, the Board of Peace initiative for Gaza, and broader efforts to reshape Middle Eastern relationships. However, the US is juggling a potential new Iran conflict and also working on helping Israel with issues in Gaza and with Lebanon and Syria. The Trump administration can only do so much.
Countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have their own interests in the Palestinian issue. Jordan is particularly concerned about developments in the West Bank, while Egypt has played a central role in Gaza diplomacy. Saudi Arabia has linked normalization with Israel to progress on the Palestinian question.
A new Israeli government could therefore create change in regional diplomacy, especially if Washington sees an opening to connect Israeli-Palestinian discussions with normalization and reconstruction initiatives.
There are several levels of potential progress. The most immediate would be renewed contacts between Israeli and Palestinian officials, improved economic cooperation, and measures to reduce tensions in the West Bank. Symbolic dialogue and positive statements can mean a lot. A more ambitious initiative could involve negotiations and enabling people in Gaza to leave the Hamas zone of control where 2 million are still trapped.
Chances for major Israeli-Palestinian talks low
The chances for major talks with the Palestinians seem low. Abbas is aging, and it is not clear who will replace him. He has postponed elections until next year. The post-October 7 Israel is not ready to take any risks on security.
Abbas's comments suggest that Ramallah wants to keep the possibility of negotiations alive. Whether this leads anywhere will depend on the next Israeli government's priorities, the Palestinian leadership's ability to make commitments, and Washington's willingness to invest in a renewed process. The most likely initial breakthrough may be the resumption of dialogue. The chances for this appear slim. It is not clear how Israel’s parties will come to a new coalition agreement.
The meeting in Cyprus matters. Cyprus is trusted by both sides. The Palestinian news agency WAFA said “President Mahmoud Abbas met with Arab ambassadors accredited to the Republic of Cyprus in the capital, Nicosia, on Thursday. President Abbas briefed the ambassadors on the situation in Palestine and the latest developments in the region.” It added that “The President arrived in Cyprus on Wednesday for an official visit at the invitation of Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides. The two leaders met on Thursday to discuss ways to strengthen bilateral relations between their countries and peoples and exchange views on the latest developments in Palestine and the region.” It did not mention the possibility of more peace discussions with Israel.