Is there another round of musical chairs in the IDF General Staff on the way just over the horizon?
There have been three such major rounds since October 7, 2023.
One was less concentrated, but involved the slow but consistent removal of top IDF officials viewed as central to the failure to prevent Hamas's infiltration and massacre on October 7.
Included in this round was Shlomi Binder, who was promoted from Brig.-Gen. to head the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, when his predecessor, Maj.-Gen. Aharon Haliva was pushed out of office, and Avi Bluth was promoted from Brig.-Gen. to become the IDF Central Command chief, along with a promotion to Maj.-Gen.
A second round took place around March and summer 2025, some of whom completed the first round, but some of whom were about IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir putting his stamp on the military when he took over at that point.
Some roles are only taken in hopes of rising higher afterwards
This included Maj.-Gen. Yaniv Asor replacing Maj.-Gen. Yaron Finkelman, as head of the Southern Command and Maj.-Gen. Rafi Milo replacing Maj.-Gen. Ori Gordin as head of the Northern Command.
It also included bringing Maj.-Gen. Tamir Yadai out of recent retirement to return to become the deputy IDF chief after Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amir Baram stepped down from that post and moved to become the Defense Ministry Director-General.
There has also now been a third round of long-standing officials running the air force and the navy stepping down this Spring after the Iran war and after over four years or more with Maj.-Gen. Omer Tischler replacing Maj.-Gen. Tomer Bar as IAF chief and V.-Adm. Eyal Harel replacing V.-Adm. David Sa'ar Salama.
But it is the earlier two rounds of change that set the framework for the next round of races.
Most officials do not relish the position of deputy IDF chief as it involves little public exposure and even less involvement with developing battles on the front.
Essentially, the role is to work on force buildup coordination behind the scenes, in the shadow of the IDF chief.
Generals take on the role usually for around two years, and then hope that their fulfillment of that role will someday lead to them becoming the next IDF chief.
It is rumored that Yadai may seek to bow out of the role sooner than the two-year point.
If he does, or even if he makes it to the two-year point, there is a clock ticking down regarding who will replace him, a race that is viewed again as putting the winner into the running for IDF chief itself.
A shortlist for possible candidates is seemingly emerging
One of the clear frontrunners for deputy IDF chief is Gordin, who was already in the race against Zamir for the top spot, so fulfilling this role would make it even more likely he would later become chief.
Gordin was the head of the Northern Command during the fall 2024 war with Hezbollah, meaning he can take credit for the main thrust, which bludgeoned Hezbollah's power, including eliminating its three-decade chief, Hassan Nasrallah.
Also, the Northern Command is generally viewed as the most challenging and important field command role, given that Hezbollah and Syria have been viewed as more threatening than Hamas in the South.
Baram was the northern command chief right before Gordin, and most of the recent IDF chiefs - Gabi Ashkenazi (2006-2011), Benny Gantz (2011-2015), Gadi Eisenkot (2015-2019), and Aviv Kohavi (2019-January 2023) - had also been northern command chiefs.
The other frontrunner for deputy chief would be Asor.
Traditionally, he would have had less of a chance, both because the Southern Command has been viewed as less important and especially because his prior role was as IDF Manpower Directorate head, often a dead-end role.
However, the last two IDF chiefs, Herzi Halevi and Zamir, both headed the Southern Command.
Also, Asor is better liked by Defense Minister Israel Katz as he was one of his first appointments and has used more force, asking fewer questions, while in command.
Gordin may be viewed by Katz as more associated with Halevi, whom Katz fought with regularly and helped push out of office.
Asor was also raised in Mivtahim, a village near the Gaza border which was attacked by Hamas, and he has made it clear that fighting Hamas is both a command and personal quest for him.
This means that if Yadai steps down before the October elections or while Katz is otherwise still the defense minister, Asor may have the upper hand.
However, if Yadai stays in office past October, let alone into 2027, Gordin may regain his standing as the lead candidate, depending on who might be the next defense minister.
Baram is expected to be the lead candidate to replace Zamir in March 2026 or March 2027 because he has already been the deputy IDF chief and the top non-political official in the defense ministry.
But after Baram, Yadai will have a shot, and either Gordin or Asor, whoever replaces Yadai, will also have a strong shot.
The other key piece will be who replaces Binder and when the IDF intelligence chief will step down.
In late 2025, Zamir both defended Binder for his less central role in the October 7 failure, such that he could keep his job, but also criticized him to some extent, stating that he would leave the army after his current role, and not seek further promotion.
The assumption then was that this meant he would leave in August 2027, after three years.
If so, then Bluth may already start the race to replace Binder, though sources close to Bluth deny that he is focused on anything other than his current role.
Yet, it is also possible that Binder may be given a four-year term, as intelligence chiefs are given in normal time periods.
This could make the considerations and candidates for his replacement more complex, as by August 2028, candidates like Operations Directorate Chief Maj.-Gen. Itzik Cohen, who is close to Zamir, might also be eligible (he has only been a major-general since June 2025, so such a promotion might be too fast by August 2027, but could be viewed as viable a year later.)
Regardless of who wins these various races, the musical chairs game, which will make up many of the future key posts in the IDF, is on.