Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened on Tuesday to launch an all-out campaign against the Palestinian Authority (PA) based on a scenario in which PA security forces could turn their weapons against Israel, despite IDF sources saying there was no concrete intelligence indicating that such a move was being planned.
Asked whether the claim was manufactured, Katz told The Jerusalem Post that it was based on an IDF presentation to the cabinet on Monday concerning the military's need to prepare for extreme scenarios. Responding to the IDF sources, Katz argued that October 7 had also been an extreme scenario and that the military had been wrong not to take the possibility seriously enough.
However, additional IDF sources said the military had no concrete intelligence pointing to a planned rebellion by PA security forces or Fatah-affiliated Tanzim elements. They acknowledged, however, that the IDF must routinely prepare for extreme scenarios, including highly unlikely ones.
Katz presented the scenario during a security briefing to the government on the IDF's preparations in the West Bank. His remarks were not coordinated with the IDF, and military sources did not indicate agreement with his decision to make the scenario public.
"The reference scenario defined for the IDF regarding Judea and Samaria determines that preparations must be made for the possibility of an attack by jihadist elements against the settlers and IDF soldiers, as a lesson from the events of October 7 in Gaza," Katz said.
The IDF has substantially changed its preparedness for surprise attacks since October 7, with IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir recently said the military would increasingly prepare based on enemy capabilities rather than relying primarily on assessments of intent. The military has also conducted surprise readiness exercises intended to test its response to large-scale attacks.
Katz said the IDF was conducting "powerful activity against terrorist centers on the ground, including the evacuation of refugee camps in northern Samaria," claiming that terrorism had fallen to its lowest level in decades while significant challenges remained.
IDF preparing for scenario where PA security forces 'turn their guns' on Israelis, IDF soldiers
At the same time, Katz said, the IDF was preparing for a scenario in which PA security personnel and Tanzim organizations affiliated with the authority would "turn their guns" against Israelis and IDF troops in the West Bank and communities along the seam line.
"In such a case, war will be declared against the Palestinian Authority, and the IDF will launch a comprehensive offensive in accordance with an organized plan that was formulated and approved by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and by me, according to the principles outlined for the IDF," Katz said.
The defense minister further implied in his remarks that he had additional intelligence that the IDF did not have.
Sources from the Shin Bet told the Post later on Tuesday that they do not know of any such concrete threat from the PA.
IDF's West Bank campaign would be 'short and powerful,' Katz says
He said such a campaign would be "short and powerful" and would include ground and air operations, as well as what he described as special measures.
"The campaign will be short and powerful and will include the use of ground and air forces and the use of special means, the targeting and expulsion of senior officials, the destruction of weapons and military equipment, and the extensive evacuation of residents and destruction of terrorist infrastructure inside the cities and in all refugee camps in Judea and Samaria, in accordance with the Gaza and Lebanon model, alongside reinforcing forces and defending the Israeli communities," Katz said.