Iran’s ruling elite is showing growing concern over the rapid progress of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) project, according to sources familiar with the matter.
The IMEC project would provide a stable trade route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, creating an alternative for global trade and energy transmission.
The ambitious plan, first launched in September 2023, has moved ahead more strongly in recent months. A major push for the initiative came after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the broad global understanding that there is an urgent and critical need to create alternative trade routes that are safer and more resilient for the global economy.
Sources familiar with the details describe IMEC's progress as a real strategic threat to Iran for several key reasons.
First, it offers a practical alternative to the Hormuz route: the corridor provides a full logistical substitute for all goods currently moving through the Strait of Hormuz. It would allow India and the Arab Gulf states to send goods directly to Europe through an overland-sea route that bypasses Iranian threats.
Second, it points to an international energy revolution: the new route is laying the groundwork for massive cross-continental exports of renewable energy. This includes, among other things, linking electricity and green energy networks between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus, a move expected to reduce long-term global dependence on oil and gas, Tehran's economic lifeline.
Iran's concern over losing control of Hormuz activity
In light of the recent exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is said to fear losing one of its most significant strategic advantages.
Until now, the ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the strait has served Iran as a kind of insurance policy and a military and political shield, helping fend off sanctions and prevent international retaliatory action against it. Breaking that monopoly over the route leaves Iran more exposed than ever.
In Tehran, there is also deep concern that Israel's inclusion in the huge project will significantly strengthen it in security and economic terms, and will directly help forge a strong and united regional camp of moderate states working together against Iran's proxies in the region.
Until recently, the Iranians drew some encouragement from the possibility that there were alternative routes in the works, such as routes through Turkey and Syria, which could leave Israel off the map and thereby weaken the potential for a regional alliance.
Israeli ministers stress importance of including Israel in IMEC
However, recent developments have scrambled the picture and are deeply worrying Tehran. Public statements by Israeli ministers in recent months, stressing the need to urgently promote Israel's inclusion in IMEC, signal to Tehran that Jerusalem does not intend to give up.
The coming period appears critical. If Israel acts correctly, shows diplomatic flexibility, and succeeds in preventing the route from bypassing it, that would be a devastating strategic blow to the Iranians and would break their leverage.
On the other hand, if Israel relaxes, gets bogged down in delays, and allows the corridor to eventually drift toward Turkey, it could hand Tehran a huge prize that would entrench Israel's isolation in the region and leave its economic future vulnerable.