The decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize to Navi Pillay – who chaired a UN commission that concluded Israel was committing genocide in Gaza – should be a wake-up call. Whether intended or not, the award signals how receptive the world has become to that accusation. Israel’s strategic environment is changing dramatically, and our future is at stake.
Israelis are divided into two camps. One believes the country is doing well. After recovering from the October 7 massacre, Israel’s security position is stable – even stronger than before, as the Yellow Lines in Gaza and southern Lebanon attest. The economy is thriving despite three years of war – witness the strong shekel. And despite our bitter divisions, civil society remains vibrant, enterprising, and marked by solidarity – witness Israel’s high ranking in the World Happiness Report.
The other camp sees a country in crisis. The war drags on, with no diplomatic settlement in sight to ensure lasting stability. The flawed strategic assumptions that preceded October 7 remain unexamined, as no official commission of inquiry has been established to date. This leaves us vulnerable to another disaster. The ultra-Orthodox community shirks its share of the national burden, threatening our economic and security future. Trust in state institutions is eroding, and social tensions are mounting – to the point that some fear civil war.
Yet both camps must confront a danger that transcends their differences: Israel stands on the brink of severe international isolation. That could trap us all in a harsh new reality with potentially grave consequences. This strategic warning demands a fundamental change of course at home, across political lines.
Israel is on the brink of international isolation
Europe, Israel’s largest trading partner, is moving toward sanctions that could seriously damage our economy. Britain and 11 other countries, including Canada, have announced or are considering restrictions on trade in settlement goods. But Israel’s economy does not stop at the Green Line. Almost every major Israeli company could find itself exposed to looming sanctions.
That could trigger a chain reaction. Businesses worldwide might avoid trading with Israel for fear of being branded sanctions violators. Even friends of Israel could pull back – not out of hostility but out of commercial caution. A creeping de facto boycott could transform BDS – boycott, divestment, and sanctions – from a radical fringe cause into a sweeping movement that reshapes life in Israel. We could become a pariah state alongside Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
The United States is Israel’s principal security and diplomatic anchor. Relations with American administrations have sometimes been tense, but broad bipartisan public support held firm. Today, the reverse is true – and this is the heart of the strategic warning.
Cooperation with the current administration is impressive. But it offers tactical reassurance while obscuring a troubling strategic shift: American sympathy for Israel is eroding. The decline extends beyond Democrats, reaching younger Republicans and even young Evangelical Christians.
Anti-Israel attitudes once associated with the radical Left and the fascist Right have gained a foothold in the mainstream. For the first time in decades, Americans are no more likely to sympathize with Israelis than with Palestinians. They are David; we are Goliath.
Israel is on a slippery slope toward a dangerous defeat – economic and diplomatic, and perhaps even in the security arena when a new US administration takes office in just over two years. No one can know how likely each part of this scenario is to materialize.
Shifts in public opinion, national interests, and governments abroad could still work in our favor. But we cannot cling to the complacent belief that “everything will be okay,” or to the illusion that an isolated, self-sufficient “Sparta” could survive. A sudden diplomatic collapse – a “6:29 a.m.” moment echoing the shock of October 7 – is a real possibility.
The forces driving these developments are complex, and not all are within Israel’s control. Still, coalition and opposition alike have a duty to weigh every action, every statement, and every failure to act in light of the long-term implications for Israel’s diplomatic standing, national security, and economy.
This is not a call for Israel to sacrifice its vital interests to appease world opinion. But there is ample room for constructive action. We can take steps most Israelis support – such as stamping out Jewish terrorism – and refrain from rhetoric most Israelis reject, including calls to flatten Gaza or force its residents to emigrate. Israelis in both camps share an overriding interest in preventing this strategic warning from becoming a tragic reality.
The writer is president of the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) and professor emeritus of law at Bar-Ilan University.